Market monitors - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/series/market-monitors/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Tue, 11 Feb 2025 22:18:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png Market monitors - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/series/market-monitors/ 32 32 Race to Zero: European Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January–December 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/r2z-eu-hdv-market-development-quarterly-jan-dec-2024-feb25/ Tue, 11 Feb 2025 22:18:02 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=55422 Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

Just over 14,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) were sold in 2024, up from 11,000 in 2023. Heavy trucks (above 12 tonnes) had a zero-emission sales share of 1.2% in 2024, up from 0.9% in 2023; light and medium trucks (below 12 tonnes) had a 10% zero-emission share, up from 6% in 2023; and buses and coaches saw a marginal increase to 17% in 2024 from 16% in 2023. Sale shares of zero-emission buses and coaches fluctuated from a low of 12% in the first quarter to a high of 26% in the fourth quarter, and electric city buses pushed this share significantly. When the sales share of zero-emission city buses breached 50% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it marked the first quarter in which sales surpassed internal combustion engine buses.

Germany led the increase in sales of zero-emission trucks: Its sales of zero-emission heavy trucks rose from 750 (1% share) in 2023 to 1,200 (1.7% share) in 2024, and its sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks rose from 1,600 (7% share) in 2023 to 2,700 (16% share) in 2024. In other major vehicle markets such as Spain and Italy, which were a combined 6% of EU-27 sales in 2024, sales of zero-emission trucks remained low despite these markets accounting for nearly 20% of the conventional truck market.

Overall market developments

In 2024, sales of all HDVs were 360,000, down from 390,000 in 2023. This 8% drop was largely driven by a fall in sales in the third quarter, when the 74,000 vehicles sold was substantially lower than the 100,000 sold in the third quarter of 2023. Sales bounced back in the fourth quarter relative to the third by 12%, and 2024 ended with a similar sales volume as the same period in 2023. While Germany’s share of the market remained the same in 2024 as it was in 2023, France and Spain increased their shares by 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.

Manufacturer market shares shifted only slightly in 2024. Mercedes remained the top seller (19.6% of all HDVs) but captured less than the 21% of the market it had in 2023. Following behind were MAN with a 14% share, Iveco (13.1%), Volvo (12.8%), Scania (12.4%), DAF (10.1%), and Renault (7.8%).

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In 2024, heavy trucks were 77% of all HDV sales. Out of 275,000 heavy trucks sold, 3,400 (1.2%) were zero-emission vehicles. Sales in the segment contracted by 5% relative to 2023 when 290,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market still grew against the backdrop of this contraction, as the 2,600 zero-emission vehicles sold in 2023 were a 0.9% sales share.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 940 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold, representing a sales share of 1.5%, roughly the same volume and share as in the last quarter of 2023, when 950 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold (1.4% share).

Volvo Trucks maintained its leading position in the zero-emission heavy truck market in the fourth quarter of 2024, but its 33% share was a drop from its 43.5% share in the previous quarter. Renault trailed closely by selling 32% of all zero-emission heavy trucks and was followed by Mercedes with a 17% share.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the 300 units sold representing 32% of the market. Just five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark) were responsible for 90% of all zero-emission heavy trucks sales.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In 2024, light and medium trucks were 13% of all HDV sales. Out of 46,000 light and medium trucks sold, 4,800 (10%) were zero-emission vehicles. The segment contracted by 16% relative to 2023, when 55,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market grew against the backdrop of this contraction, though: In 2023, the 3,500 zero-emission sales were only 6% of the market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 1,500 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a sales share of 13%. In terms of volume and share, this is more than double the fourth quarter of 2023 when 780 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a share of 6%.

Germany was home to 55% of the zero-emission sales. The same five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden) were home to 88% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sales. Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2024, zero-emission vehicles were 48% of all light and medium trucks sales in Denmark and 42% in Sweden.

Ford regained its position as the leading seller of zero-emission light and medium trucks. The Ford E-Transit was the most popular zero-emission model in 2024 with 1,800 sold and it was followed by the Iveco eDaily (1,200 sold), the Mercedes eSprinter (560 sold), and the Fiat Ducato (430 sold). Combined, these four models were 83% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sold in 2024.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 3.4. Sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles by Member State in Q4 2024

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

In 2024, buses and coaches were 10% of all HDV sales. Out of 35,000 buses and coaches sold, 6,000 (17%) were zero-emission vehicles. The bus and coach market grew by 31% relative to 2023 when 27,000 vehicles were sold. The volume of zero-emission buses and coaches also increased in 2024 relative to 2023, when 4,500 zero-emission vehicles were sold; the sales share remained relatively constant at 17% in 2024 compared with 16% in 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 2,000 zero-emission buses and coaches were sold, 26% of total sales and an increase in both volume and share compared with the last quarter of 2023, when 1,600 (22% share) were sold. Over 50% of all city buses sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 were battery electric—zero-emission powertrains were more popular than combustion engines for the first time ever. Seven countries (Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Romania) only sold zero-emission city buses in the fourth quarter of 2024. That same quarter, sales share of zero-emission interurban buses and coaches increased to 6%, largely driven by a surge in electric minibuses sold by Iveco, Mercedes, and Ford.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Technology focus: Energy efficiency technology deployment 

Manufacturers are pursuing various strategies to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of their new HDVs, and all major manufacturers recently launched new technology packages that benefit the energy efficiency of both conventional and zero-emission vehicles. These include improvements in the aerodynamic design of truck cabins, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), lightweighting of various vehicle components, and, for conventional vehicles, more efficient engines and transmissions. All combined, fuel savings of up to 15% have been reported in the new generation of long-haul tractor-trailers compared with 2020-2021 trucks. 

New rules on truck cabin design implemented in 2021 allowed all major manufacturers to launch new, elongated truck cabins with significantly improved aerodynamics and other features such as air fenders, aero seals, under hood aerodynamic design improvement (closing gaps between components), side skirts, and improved windscreen design. Another innovation driven by the new safety requirements is the introduction of camera mirrors to replace traditional side mirrors; this reduces blind spots for increased safety and considerably reduces air drag on the side of the cabin. Improved aerodynamics have been reported to result in up to 5% fuel savings. 

ADAS have also become more widespread in the past few years. ADAS deliver up to 5% fuel savings compared with vehicles that are not equipped with the technology. Most importantly, predictive cruise control (PCC) adjusts the speed of the vehicle to gain momentum as it approaches hills, which reduces the impacts of positive road gradients on fuel consumption. Recent improvements in PCC algorithms were reported to deliver further 2% fuel savings. For conventional vehicles, through more efficient combustion, engine lightweighting, and gearbox automation and increased rear axle ratio enabling engine downspeeding, fuel savings of up to 8% have been reported.  

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion. 

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.  

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.  

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5–12 tonnes.  

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.  

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.  

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.  

All data are supplied by Dataforce. 

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European Market Monitor: Cars and vans 2024 https://theicct.org/publication/european-market-monitor-cars-vans-2024-feb25/ Thu, 06 Feb 2025 13:42:18 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=55429 European market monitor for cars and vans offers data on new registrations, charging infrastructure, and estimation of CO2 emission targets compliance by manufacturers in 2024.

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Passenger car registrations

The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe in 2024 was 14%, down slightly from 15% in 2023. Apart from Tesla (100%), the KG Mobility manufacturer pool had the highest BEV share in 2024 (37%) and a share of 49% in December alone. At 27%, Volvo-Polestar-Suzuki had the third-highest share of BEVs in 2024, and this was a seven-percentage-point increase over the previous year. BMW (22%) and Mercedes-Benz (18%) also had above-average BEV shares. While Subaru-Mazda-Toyota (2%), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (8%), and Hyundai (11%) lagged in BEV sales, their shares of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), at 65%, 23%, and 20%, respectively, were well above the 12% average of European manufacturer pools. For mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs), Volvo-Polestar-Suzuki and Ford dominated in registration shares—47% and 41%, respectively. The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe fell to 7% in 2024, down one percentage point from 2023.
Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO2 emissions of manufacturer pools and Tesla, a large manufacturer not part of a pool, in 2024, including compliance credits, compared with their estimated 2024 targets.

Note: All CO2 values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for details.

Average CO2 emissions among manufacturer pools and Tesla, a large manufacturer not part of an official pool, fell to 108 g CO2/km in 2024, with an average of 103 g CO2/km in December. All manufacturer pools reached their 2024 targets; on average, over-compliance was 12 g CO2/km, based on an average target of 119 g CO2/km. Volvo-Polestar-Suzuki showed the greatest over-compliance (50 g CO2/km below) while Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi just met its target. Looking at individual car brands, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 67 g CO2/km below its pool target for 2024, followed by BMW (30 g CO2/km below). Meanwhile, Nissan, Dacia, SEAT, and Citroën exceeded their 2024 pool targets by 10, 6, 4, and 1 g CO2/ km, respectively.

Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool and Tesla, a large manufacturer not part of a pool

Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool and Tesla, a large manufacturer not part of a pool

Table 3. New passenger car fleet-average CO2 emissions level and market share of the 20 largest brands in terms of 2024 new registration numbers

Passenger car registrations by country

Passenger car registrations in Europe increased slightly in 2024, reaching just over 10.8 million, and there were over 920,000 in December alone. While registrations in Poland increased 16% over 2023, those in Sweden fell 7% compared with the previous year. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 22% in Europe in 2024, down one percentage point from 2023. Norway (92%), Sweden (58%), and Denmark (55%) all had shares above 50%, and Finland (50%), the Netherlands (48%), and Belgium (43%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares well above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Belgium, where shares increased 9 percentage points in 2024 compared with 2023. In the Netherlands, new BEV registrations reached an all-time high of 47% in December, and the BEV sales share was 35% for 2024. After the phaseout of government subsidies at the end of 2023, BEV registrations dropped significantly in Germany to 14% in 2024 compared with 18% the previous year. Of the major markets, 2024 PHEV registration shares were the highest in Sweden (23%), HEV shares were highest in Poland (22%), and MHEV shares were highest in Italy (28%).
Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)
Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Passenger car registrations by owner

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May to only 5% in October 2024.
Figure 4. New passenger car registrations by owner for 20 select European countries

Van registrations

Over 1.5 million new vans were registered in Europe in 2024, a 7% increase over 2023. Of newly registered vans, 7% were battery electric in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the share for full-year 2024 was 6%, a slight decrease from the 7% average in 2023. While Volkswagen and other smaller manufacturing pools had BEV van shares of 8% in 2024, the Renault-Nissan (5%) and Ford (3%) pools remained below the European average. Looking at countries, the market share of battery electric vans dropped three percentage points to 5% in Germany in 2024, while the share other major countries either remained the same or dropped by one percentage point compared with the previous year. All manufacturers met their CO2 targets for 2024, with average overcompliance of 8 g CO2/km. Among manufacturer pools, Stellantis, with a market share of 30%, stood out with over-compliance of 15 g CO2/km, and Renault-Nissan over-complied by 1%.

Table 6. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, and mild hybrid vans by manufacturer pool

Table 7. New van fleet-average CO2 emissions and market share by manufacturer pool

Table 8. New van registrations by country

Table 9. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid vans by country

Charging infrastructure development

Over 950,000 public charging points were installed in Europe by the end of 2024, up from around 700,000 at the end of 2023. For alternating current (AC) charging, this represents an increase of around 32% compared with the end of 2023. Direct current (DC) charging points showed even greater growth, increasing 61% over the end of 2023. Approximately 82% of Europe’s public charging points supply AC, while the remaining 18% supply DC. Norway, the country with the highest BEV market shares, also recorded the largest growth in DC chargers in 2024 compared with 2023 (+141%); Italy followed in second with a substantial increase in both DC and AC publicly accessible charging points of +76% and +72%, respectively. There were on average about 6.5 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans on the road in Europe at the end of December 2024, up from
4.2 at the end of 2023. With 43 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points per thousand passenger cars and vans, Norway continues to lead Europe in charging infrastructure, followed by Iceland (32), Denmark (26), and Sweden (21). Italy and Spain (both 2.7) remain well below the European average.

Figure 5. 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans in Europe by the end of December 2024

Note: The width of the bars represents stock size estimates as of the end of 2024. The unit 22 kW-equivalent is used to account for different power outputs while allowing for comparison among countries.

Table 10. Number of publicly accessible charging points installed by country and type of power output

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2024 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, and the main brands are: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Ford (Ford), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Smart), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Opel, Peugeot), Subaru-Mazda-Toyota (Lexus, Mazda, Subaru, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW), and Volvo-Polestar-Suzuki (Polestar, Suzuki, Volvo). For vans, the 2024 pools listed in “N1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, applies: Ford (Ford), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso), Renault-Nissan (Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Peugeot), Volkswagen (MAN, Volkswagen). Tesla is a large M1 manufacturer that is not part of a pool.

Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car and van registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system, which cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff, John German, Ashok Deo, and Athanasios Dimaratos, Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/ mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car and van registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Romania. Charging infrastructure data are presented for the 27 EU members plus the four European Free Trade Association countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland).

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), Eco-Movement (charging points), European Environment Agency (EEA) (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits).

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities. Similarly, charging infrastructure data may also be retrospectively updated by Eco-Movement. Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available.

Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms. Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 7 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https:// theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2024 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their 2024 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https:// theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturersperformance-2023-sept24/.

Charging point: As defined in the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, a charging point “means a fixed or mobile interface that allows for the transfer of electricity to an electric vehicle, which, whilst it may have one or several connectors to accommodate different connector types, is capable of recharging only one electric vehicle at a time, and excludes devices with a power output less than or equal to 3.7 kW the primary purpose of which is not recharging electric vehicles.”

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their own employees. New registrations data by registration type is aggregated for the following 20 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

From the authors: With the next stage of the European Union’s new vehicle carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions targets taking effect in 2025, lots of eyes are on automaker performance. To provide up-to-date data for discussion, we plan to release monthly updates on European passenger car registrations throughout 2025, and quarterly updates on van registrations and charging infrastructure developments.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

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Global electric vehicle market monitor for light-duty vehicles in key markets, 2024 H1 https://theicct.org/publication/global-ev-market-monitor-ldv-2024-h1-dec24/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 17:16:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54056 This Global Market Monitor analyzes the development of the electric vehicle (EV) market for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including by manufacturer.

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Global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 7 million units in the first half of 2024 and were 17% of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold worldwide. China, Europe, the United States, and India collectively represented 68% of LDV sales, and 86% of EVs sold globally.

China continued to lead the global EV market with 4.3 million units sold in H1 2024, and this was 37% of its new LDV sales—an 8 percentage point increase from H1 2023. Europe saw a slight decline in EV sales share to 18% from 20% in H1 2023, while the United States maintained its 9% EV sales share. India held steady at 2% of new LDV sales with approximately 58,000 EVs sold.

Figure. Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) still dominated EV sales in 2024 H1 across markets but the shares varied. In China, the BEV share of EV sales fell from 69% to 61%, and similarly in the United States, there was a slight drop from 80% to 77%. In contrast, Europe saw an increase in the BEV share of EVs to 68%, up from 60% in 2023 H1. India maintained its strong preference for BEVs, which continued to make up nearly all (99%) the EVs sold.

In emerging markets, Vietnam and Thailand recorded the highest EV sales share among the markets considered, at nearly 16% and 14%, respectively. Brazil recorded a 5% EV sales share, and Türkiye a 4% share. Domestic vehicle producers, such as VinFast in Vietnam and Togg in Türkiye, dominated EV sales, meanwhile a mix of legacy automakers and newcomers such as BYD dominated sales in other markets. BEVs also dominated sales in these markets, comprising 83% of EV sales in 2024 H1.

Figure. BEVs dominate EV sales in emerging markets with 83% of sales, Vietnam and Thailand lead in EV sales share

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Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – September 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/r2z-eu-hdv-market-development-quarterly-jan-sept-2024-dec24/ Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:30:25 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=53342 Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

Just under 2,900 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) were sold in the third quarter of 2024: 700 heavy trucks (above 12 tonnes), 1,000 light and medium trucks (below 12 tonnes), and 1,200 buses. Sales of zero-emission HDVs fell from 4,200 in the preceding quarter amid a contraction in the broader HDV market, which saw sales of 74,000 in Q3, down from 110,000 in Q2. This left the sales share of zero-emission HDVs mostly unchanged at 4.0% in Q3 compared with 4.1% in Q2 2024. At the same time, the sales share of zero-emission heavy trucks rose from 1.1% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3, the share of zero-emission light and medium trucks rose from 9.9% to 10.4%, and the share of zero-emission buses shrunk from 18% to 14%. The drop in zero-emission bus sales was driven in part by contractions in major markets including Germany (where sales dropped by a third) and France (dropped by two-thirds), and in part due to unusually high sales of zero-emission buses in smaller Member States in Q2 2024. Although Ireland, Greece, and Denmark made up 30% of zero-emission bus sales in Q2, the same three countries were just 4% of zero-emission bus sales in Q3 2024.

Overall market developments

The drop in HDV sales in the EU-27 from 110,000 in Q2 2024, which was the highest quarterly sales total since these market monitors began last year, to 74,000 in Q3, which was the lowest sales of any quarter in the past 2 years, marked a 32% decline. By contrast, sales marginally increased by 1.6% over the same period in 2023. The 2024 decrease in sales was notably high in major markets, as truck sales in Germany dropped by 40% and in Italy by 38%.

Volvo Trucks was least affected by the market contraction, as its sales fell by 19% in Q3 compared with Q2. It was followed by Renault Trucks and MAN, which both contracted by 26%. Sales of Scania HDVs fell by the most of any major manufacturer from Q2 to Q3, 40%, and it was followed by Iveco (38%) and Mercedes (35%). Despite these contractions, the market share of the major manufacturers remained mostly unchanged. Mercedes is the top seller so far this year (20% of all HDVs) followed by MAN (14%), Iveco (13%), Volvo Trucks (12%), Scania (12%), DAF (10%), and Renault Trucks (7%).

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In Q3 2024, heavy trucks were 75% of all HDV sales. Out of 56,000 heavy trucks sold, 700 (1.2%) were zero-emission vehicles. While sales of zero-emission heavy trucks fell by 25% in Q3 compared with Q2, this came against the backdrop of an overall contraction in the market for all heavy trucks, which fell from 83,000 vehicles in Q2 to 56,000 in Q3, a 32% decrease. As such, the share of zero-emission heavy trucks rose from 1.1% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3. Compared with the first three quarters of 2023, zero-emission heavy truck sales increased by 42% in the first three quarters of 2024; the 2,400 vehicles registered (1.2% of total heavy truck sales) were more than the 1,700 vehicles (0.8%) registered in the first three quarters of 2023.

Volvo Trucks maintained its leading position in the zero-emission heavy truck market in Q3 2024, and its 36% share was a drop from its 43.5% share in Q2 2024. Renault trailed closely by selling 32% of all zero-emission heavy trucks and was followed by Mercedes with a 13% share. Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks with 250 units sold, 36% of the market. Just five countries (Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark) were home to 86% of all zero-emission heavy truck sales.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In the third quarter of 2024, light and medium trucks were 12% of all HDV sales. Of the 9,500 light and medium trucks sold, 1,000 were zero-emission vehicles, 10.4%. This marked a slight sales share increase over the second quarter of 2024, when 1,400, or 9.9%, of the trucks sold were zero-emission, and was achieved in spite of a contraction in total sales of all trucks over the same period.

Compared with the first three quarters of 2023, zero-emission light and medium truck sales increased by 47% in the first three quarters of 2024, and the 3,400 vehicles registered (10% of total light and medium truck sales in this period) were up from 2,300 vehicles (7%) year-over-year.

For the first time since we commenced these market monitors last year, Ford dropped from its position as the top seller of zero-emission light and medium trucks. Though Ford’s E-Transit has long been the dominant model in the zero-emission market in this segment, its sales fell to 230 (23% of all sales) in Q3 2024 from 600 in Q2 2024, and the eDaily by Iveco became the top-selling model, with 400 sold in Q3 2024, or 40% of all sales.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Buses and interurban coaches were 11% of all heavy-duty vehicle sales in the third quarter of 2024. Of the 8,400 buses sold, 1,200 were zero-emission vehicles, 14% of total sales; this is a drop from the second quarter share of 17%, but still above the first quarter share of 12%. Battery electric city buses were 36% of all city bus registrations, with 1,000 units registered in Q3 2024, and this was a drop from 40% in Q2 2024. Bus sales in the first three quarters of 2024 rose to 4,100, a 24% increase over the 3,300 buses sold in the first three quarters of 2023.

Mercedes became the top-selling manufacturer of zero-emission buses by selling 180 units in Q3 2024, 16% of all sales. Mercedes overtook Yutong, which was the highest selling manufacturer in the second quarter. Shares of plug-in hybrid electric buses increased, doubling from 15 vehicles sold in the second quarter to 32 vehicles in Q3 2024. Sales were almost entirely in Germany (there was only a single sale outside, in Italy), and most of the buses were Solaris’s Urbino model.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion. 

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.  

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.  

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.  

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.  

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.  

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.   

All data are supplied by Dataforce. All countries from the EU-27, except Bulgaria, are covered here. 

The post Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – September 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Race to Zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States (January –June 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/r2z-zero-emission-bus-and-truck-market-us-jan-june-2024-dec24/ Wed, 11 Dec 2024 17:42:36 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=53332 If trends from the first half of the year continue through the end of the year, 2024 will surpass 2023 in both total registrations and market share for zero-emission HDVs.

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Overview

Approximately 120,000 new heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) were registered in the United States in the first half of 2024. Of these, 1,381 (0.56%) were zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). There were more zero-emission HDV registrations in the first quarter of 2024 (800) than in the second quarter (581).

Zero-emission vehicles accounted for 0.64% of total HDV registrations in Q1 and 0.48% of HDV registrations in Q2, increases of 113% and 60%, respectively, from the 0.30% share for all of 2023. Additionally, new zero-emission bus registrations in Q1 achieved a double-digit share of the bus market for the first time. If trends continue through the end of the year, 2024 will surpass 2023 in both total registrations and market share for zero-emission HDVs.

Medium- and heavy-duty trucks dominated the internal combustion engine (ICE) HDV market, with more than 97% of total registrations in both quarters. Trucks made up 46% of all new zero-emission HDV registrations in Q1 and 62% in Q2. Buses accounted for just over 54% of zero-emission registrations in Q1, and 38% in Q2. This pattern in quarterly bus sales is consistent with previous years and reflects seasonality in the relatively small zero-emission HDV market. More than 99% of zero-emission HDVs registered in Q1 and Q2 2024 were battery electric, with a small number powered by hydrogen fuel-cell electric powertrains.

Buses

In the first quarter of 2024, zero-emission buses represented nearly 11% of all bus registrations in the United States—the first time zero-emission technology has surpassed 10% market penetration in any HDV segment. New registrations of zero-emission buses totaled 422 in the first quarter and 219 in the second quarter; the 641 buses registered in the first half of 2024 were more than were registered in all of 2023.

Traton and Daimler are the largest manufacturer groups for both ICE and zero-emission buses in the United Sates. Together, they accounted for more than 90% of the ICE market and close to 90% of the zero-emission market for buses in Q1 and Q2 2024. Most zero-emission bus registrations were battery-electric school buses manufactured by Traton subsidiary International Motors (formerly Navistar) and Daimler subsidiary Thomas Built Buses. Lion Electric, which manufactures only battery electric buses, ranked third for zero-emission bus registrations in both quarters, although with fewer than half the registrations of either Traton or Daimler.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Trucks

The composition of truck classes in both the ICE and zero-emission markets remained largely unchanged from Q1 to Q2 2024. This composition is also consistent with the breakdown of truck classes in 2022 and 2023. In the ICE market, Class 4–6 rigid trucks were the most popular truck segment, with over 40% of total registrations in both quarters, followed by Class 8 tractor trucks and Class 8 rigid trucks. In the zero-emission truck market, Class 8 tractor trucks accounted for more than 70% of all registrations in the first half of the year. The high share of Class 8 tractor trucks corresponds to manufacturers’ deployment of battery electric drayage truck models in the market. Meanwhile, the share of Class 4–6 rigid trucks in the zero-emission truck market grew over the first half of the year, from 14% in Q1 to 23% in Q2. Class 7 and 8 rigid trucks together accounted for around 22% of ICE truck registrations but only about 7% of zero-emission truck registrations in both quarters.

Medium-duty trucks

There were 66 zero-emission medium-duty trucks registered in the first quarter of 2024 and 99 registered in the second quarter. This represented 0.11% and 0.17%, respectively, of the approximately 59,000 total medium-duty truck registrations in each quarter. While still low, these shares surpassed 2022 and 2023 levels.

The medium-duty truck market shows a high degree of fragmentation in terms of manufacturer market share. No manufacturer accounted for more than 50% of the ICE vehicle market, and multiple legacy and dedicated zero-emission manufacturers are active in the zero-emission market. In the first quarter of 2024, Daimler, Traton, Paccar, and BYD were the largest zero-emission medium-duty truck manufacturers. In the second quarter, Daimler’s share accounted for almost 80% of zero-emission registrations. Ford, Isuzu, General Motors, and Stellantis did not record any zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations during the first half of 2024. Unlike other HDV segments where diesel is the dominant fuel in ICE vehicles, this segment included some gasoline-powered vehicles sold by Ford, Isuzu, and other manufacturers.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Heavy-duty trucks

Almost 62,000 heavy-duty trucks were registered in the first quarter of 2024 and about 58,000 were registered in the second quarter, making up roughly half the total HDV market. There were 312 zero-emission heavy-duty trucks registered in Q1 and 263 in Q2, accounting for 0.50% and 0.45% of total heavy-duty truck registrations, respectively. The shares for both quarters were higher than the latest full-year data from 2023.

Legacy manufacturer groups Daimler, Paccar, Volvo Truck, and Traton are the largest ICE manufacturers; these groups accounted for more than 95% of the market in both Q1 and Q2. Daimler, Paccar, and Volvo Truck also dominated the zero-emission market, collectively representing about three quarters of zero-emission heavy truck registrations in the first half of 2024. Volvo had the most zero-emission heavy truck registrations in Q1 by a wide margin, while Daimler recorded the most in Q2. Dedicated zero-emission manufacturers BYD, Tesla, and Nikola accounted for single-digit market shares in the zero-emission market. Nikola’s registrations were of hydrogen fuel-cell and battery electric vehicles, while registrations of BYD and Tesla trucks were exclusively battery electric vehicles. Because of data limitations, no manufacturer information was available for 18% of zero-emission registrations in Q1 and 14% in Q2.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Definitions and data sources
  • Zero-emission vehicles: Any vehicle with a propulsion system that produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.
  • Heavy-duty vehicles: All vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating above 14,001 lb, which corresponds to Classes 4–8 in the National Highway Administration’s vehicle class definitions.
  • Buses: All Class 4–8 buses and coaches.
  • Heavy-duty trucks: Class 8 trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating greater than 33,000 lb.
  • Medium-duty trucks and vans: Class 4–7 trucks and vans with a gross vehicle weight rating of 14,001–33,000 lb.

Truck class 

Gross vehicle weight rating (lb) 

Gross vehicle weight rating (kg) 

Classification in this Market Spotlight 

4 

14,001–16,000 

6,350–7,257 

Medium-duty trucks 

5 

16,001–19,500 

7,258–8,845 

6 

19,501–26,000 

8,846–11,793 

7 

26,001–33,000 

11,794–14,968 

8 

33,001+  

14,968+ 

Heavy-duty trucks 

DATA SOURCES
Vehicle registration data were supplied by S&P Global Limited; Copyright © S&P Global Limited 2024. All rights reserved.

The post Race to Zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States (January –June 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle market in China (January–June 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/ze-mhdv-market-china-january-june-2024-nov24/ Mon, 18 Nov 2024 05:00:27 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=51618 Nearly 78,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles were sold in China in the first half of 2024, with notable growth in the uptake of battery electric, fuel-cell electric, and battery swap-capable vehicles.

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Overview

This overview of China’s zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-HDV) market covers city buses and coaches, medium and heavy straight trucks, and tractor-trailers above 3.5 tonnes. Sales of ZE-HDVs in China saw two spikes in the last 13 years: first in 2015–2016, underpinned by government subsidies, and more recently in 2021, amid a rebound in domestic and foreign demand after COVID-19.

Through the first half of 2024, total ZE-HDV sales in China reached approximately 77,700, including roughly 64,500 ZE trucks and tractor-trailers and 13,200 ZE buses and coaches. Sales of ZE trucks and tractor-trailers were particularly noteworthy, as they almost matched the total number of these vehicles sold in the whole year in 2022 (65,200). Meanwhile, ZE bus and coach sales continued to shrink.

Heavy trucks

The heavy truck market saw changes in the mix of fuel types from previous years. In the first half of 2024, diesel trucks accounted for 55% of sales, down from 80% in the first half of 2023, and natural gas-powered trucks made up 35% of sales, up 8% year-on-year. Battery electric trucks reached a 9% sales share and were the third most popular powertrain technology in the market.

Sales of both battery electric and fuel-cell heavy trucks have mostly grown steadily in 2024, except for a dip in February during the Spring Festival, when most business activity is paused. In June, the market share of battery electric heavy trucks hit a new high of 14%, a 35% increase from January 2024. The market for fuel-cell heavy trucks remains nascent, with 332 vehicles sold in June 2024, a 1% market share.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries dominate the heavy truck market in China due to their economy, durability, and safety. In terms of capacity, the most popular battery sizes for these vehicles were 282 kWh, 350 kWh, and 423 kWh, indicating a balance between cost and efficiency.

The collective market share of the top 5 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), known as the 5-firm concentration ratio or CR5, is an indicator of market maturity. In the first half of 2024, the CR5 among internal combustion engine (ICE) heavy truck manufacturers was 79%, while the ratio among ZE manufacturers was 69%. This implies that the ZE heavy truck industry is approaching a level of market maturity similar to that of ICE manufacturers, with top OEMs capturing a growing share of the market.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Medium trucks

Diesel remained the dominant powertrain in the medium truck market in the first half of 2024, accounting for 86% of total sales, a 4% year-on-year decrease. Battery electric reached a 10% market share, making it the second most popular powertrain in the segment.

By month, battery electric trucks showed steady growth in market share, reaching 14.4% in June 2024, more than double the level in January 2024. Just two fuel-cell trucks were sold in June, representing a 0.4% market share; this powertrain remains in early stages of development in this segment.

As in the heavy truck market, LFP is the dominant battery chemistry among medium trucks in China. Most electric medium truck models were equipped with 100 kWh batteries to balance cost and available range. Equipping trucks with heavier batteries may not necessarily improve the available range, as reduced energy efficiency due to the increased weight of the battery may offset the range benefits of added battery capacity.

Here there is a small difference in the market share of the top 5 OEMs between the ICE and ZE medium truck industries: In the first half of 2024, the CR5 of ICE OEMs was 79%, while the CR5 of zero-emission truck OEMs was 69%.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

City buses and coaches

City buses have the highest electrification rate of all vehicle categories in China, with a cumulative battery electric, hybrid electric, and fuel-cell electric market share of almost 100% as of mid-2024. Electrification among coaches, which are used for intercity transport, has been far more limited: The market share of battery electric coaches was 6% in the first half of 2024, and most coaches were still powered by diesel. This implies that the uptake of electric commercial vehicles is driven by demonstrated applicability in certain uses, with widespread adoption for (generally shorter-distance) intra-city bus travel but not yet for (typically longer-distance) trips between cities.

In terms of market share, there were no major changes in the adoption of zero-emission technologies during the first half of 2024. City bus sales saw a peak in January with 2,670 units sold, predominantly battery electric buses, followed by a sharp decline in February and March before a bounce in April. As of June 2024, the market share of battery electric coaches was 6.0%.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Battery swapping

Battery swapping, whereby a depleted electric vehicle battery can be switched out for a fully charged replacement within minutes, is an innovative technology that can make battery electric vehicles operate more efficiently and affordably. Fleet operators save on the upfront investment by purchasing vehicles without batteries installed and renting batteries from third-party lessors; operators can also be free from range anxiety, assuming there is battery swapping infrastructure deployed close to their yard. Swap-capable technology has gained in popularity in China in recent years, particularly for trucks and tractors.

In the first half of 2024, sales of swap-capable vehicles increased and reached a total of 2,497 in June 2024. That is up 87% from the first half of 2023. The popularity of swap-capable vehicles has been jointly driven by policy and market developments: Several policies were introduced in 2024 to support this emerging technology (see Table 4.1), and pilot projects have been launched to assess use cases in several industries, including mining, steel, and port logistics.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Terminology, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle intended for the transport of passengers or freight with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.

A medium truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.

Utility vehicles (专用车辆), due to their popular application in freight trucking, are categorized as trucks.

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in inter-city environments.

All data are provided by Gasgoo Auto.

The post Zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle market in China (January–June 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – June 2024)  https://theicct.org/publication/r2z-eu-hdv-market-development-quarterly-jan-june-2024-sept24/ Fri, 27 Sep 2024 00:05:34 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=48393 Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

In the second quarter of 2024, the market for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) in the European Union grew by 12% relative to the first quarter. Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) were for 4.1% of all HDV sales in the second quarter compared with 3.2% in the first quarter. This increase was across all three HDV segments—heavy trucks, light and medium commercial vehicles, and buses and coaches. Germany continued to lead in zero-emission HDV sales in the European Union, accounting for 32.2% (1,282 units) of the total across all vehicle categories in the second quarter.

Zero-emission HDV sales in the first half of 2024 increased by 54% relative to the first half of 2023. The sales share of zero-emission heavy trucks increased from 0.7% in the first half of 2023 (1,076 ZEVs out of 151,327 total heavy trucks) to 1.2% in the first half of 2024 (1,651 ZEVs out of 141,101). The sales share of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles rose from 4.9% in the first half of 2023 to 9.3% in the first half of 2024, and sales of zero-emission buses and coaches increased from 2,088 units to 2,819 units. However, the overall market share of zero-emission buses and coaches declined from 16% in the first half of 2023 to 15% in the first half of 2024.

Overall market developments

Nearly 98,000 HDVs were registered in the EU-27 in the second quarter of 2024. The three biggest European markets in terms of sales were Germany (28.4%), France (16.4%), and Italy (10.5%). These countries witnessed increases in sales shares of 2.3% for Germany, 1.2% for France, and 1.5% for Italy relative to the first quarter.

The seven top-selling HDV brands in the European Union represented 84% of all sales in the second quarter of 2024. Mercedes-Benz was the top-selling brand (21%), followed by MAN (13.8%), IVECO (13.5%), Scania (12.5%), Volvo (11.7%), DAF (9.7%), and Renault (7.1%)

There were differences in the sales mix of the seven top-selling brands in Europe regarding vehicle segments. Heavy trucks represented more than 95% of sales for Scania, DAF, Volvo Trucks, and Renault Trucks. IVECO, meanwhile, sold proportionally fewer of those trucks (47%) and sold more light and medium commercial vehicles (36%), and buses and coaches (17%).

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In the second quarter of 2024, heavy trucks accounted for 75.2% of all HDV sales. Out of 74,000 heavy trucks sold, 916 (1.2%) were ZEVs. This is an increase of nearly 20% compared with the first quarter of 2024 when 755 ZEVs were registered, representing 1.1% of the total market share.

Compared with the first two quarters of 2023, zero-emission heavy truck sales recorded a significant 53% increase in the first two quarters of 2024, with 1,651 units, or 1.2% of total heavy truck sales registered, up from 1,076 vehicles (0.71%) in the first half of 2023.

Volvo Trucks maintained its leading position in the zero-emission heavy truck market in the second quarter with a 43.5% share, driven by the sale of 104 units of the 4×2 FM model and 91 units of the 4×2 FH model. Renault followed with a 17.3% market share, and Mercedes-Benz captured a 14.8% share.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the second quarter of 2024, holding 37% of the market with 335 units sold. France and the Netherlands represented 16% and 17% of the market, respectively. This reflects a minor change relative to the first quarter when Germany held a 41% market share and France held 13%.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Light and medium commercial vehicles

With a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In the second quarter of 2024, light and medium commercial vehicles represented 14.6% of all HDV sales. Of the 14,292 light and medium commercial vehicles sold, 1,447 were ZEVs, 10% of the segment’s sales. This was a significant increase over the first quarter, when 928, or 8.4% of the trucks sold, were zero-emission. The total number of light and medium trucks sold increased by 29.5% from the first to the second quarter of 2024; the number of ZEVs sold grew by more than 50% in the same period.

Comparing the first halves of 2024 and 2023, light and medium commercial vehicle sales decreased by 2.7%. In contrast, sales of ZEVs in this segment increased by approximately 86%, from 1,270 trucks in the first half of 2023 to nearly 2,400 trucks in the first half of 2024.

Ford continued to lead the zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle market in the second quarter of 2024 with 41.5% of sales; this is despite representing only 1.5% of internal combustion engine (ICE) truck sales, and sales were primarily driven by the 4×2 axle Ford Transit. IVECO followed closely with more than one-third of all ZEV sales in this segment, mostly driven by its 4×2 axle Iveco Daily; 475 were sold this quarter. Although vans continue to dominate ZEV sales in this segment, making up over 71% of the total, the share of rigid truck sales increased to nearly 26% in the second quarter of 2024, up from 19% in the first quarter of 2024.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Buses and interurban coaches represented 10.2% of all HDV sales in the second quarter of 2024. Of the 9,976 buses sold, 1,722 were ZEVs, 17.2% of total sales. This is up from the first quarter when ZEV buses were 12.4% of sales. Battery electric city buses accounted for 40% of city bus sales, with 1,616 registered units in the second quarter of 2024. This is a considerable increase relative to the first quarter, when 32% of city bus registrations were battery electric (1,100 units).

Bus sales in the first half of 2024 increased by 48.7% compared with the first half of 2023. Although the number of zero-emission buses sold during the first half of 2024 rose by 35% compared with the first half of 2023, the ZEV share of total bus sales declined from 16.5% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2024.

Manufacturers Yutong and Mercedes-Benz led in zero-emission bus sales, with shares of 20.8% and 14.8%, respectively. Mercedes-Benz also leads the ICE bus market, holding a 27.2% share.

City buses have historically led in adoption of ZEVs in the HDV segment. Although the trend observed in 2023 of several countries selling only zero-emission buses and coaches did not carry over to 2024, sales of zero-emission city buses remain high. The percentage of battery electric city bus sales reached 97% in Greece (261 units), 95% in Denmark (111 units), over 90% in Ireland (166 units) and Luxembourg (40 units), and 87% in the Netherlands (80 units). France recorded an all-time high 45% sales share of zero-emission city buses, with 285 units registered in the second quarter of 2024, the highest number of registrations in the European Union.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Technology focus: Development of hydrogen combustion trucks

Looking beyond quarterly sales

Hydrogen combustion trucks burn hydrogen fuel in an ICE that is similar to the engines used for natural gas. The technology can significantly reduce tailpipe CO2 emissions, but its effect on pollutant emissions such as nitrogen oxides and particulates is still being investigated. As highlighted below, several European truck and engine manufacturers have shown interest in developing hydrogen ICE vehicles.

Europe

Engine manufacturer Cummins stated in late 2022 that its hydrogen ICE for medium trucks is suitable for applications with gross vehicle weights between 10 and 26 tonnes. Cummins also announced a 15-liter 500 HP hydrogen ICE for long-distance applications, suitable for HDV applications.

DAF has developed a prototype hydrogen ICE version of its XF rigid 26 tonnes GVW truck, based on a Paccar MX13 12.9-liter engine with common rail.

MAN announced a zero-emission roadmap in late 2020 that included the testing of hydrogen ICEs alongside fuel-cell and battery electric trucks. More recently, MAN publicly mentioned that a prototype truck running on a 16.8-liter hydrogen engine has been under testing since 2021. In April 2024, MAN announced that it would begin small series production of hTGX, a hydrogen model of the MAN diesel TGX truck, and it plans to offer 200 units in 2025.

Volvo became a member of the Hydrogen Combustion Engine Trucks consortium, an initiative funded by the German government, in 2022. Volvo recently confirmed that it plans to include hydrogen ICEs in its future production mix and expand its research activities in this regard.

While IVECO has not yet announced any pilot projects for hydrogen ICE trucks, it announced that it is involved in developing hydrogen engines for trucks through its FPT Industrial powertrain brand.

Scania is part of a joint demonstration program with Westport to demonstrate high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) hydrogen ICEs for highway trucks. The engine was tested in 2023. In 2024, Westport and Scania presented the test results at the Vienna Motor Symposium, showcasing a 51.5% brake thermal efficiency and engine-out nitrogen oxides emissions similar to a diesel engine.

KEYOU, a German startup specializing in developing and implementing hydrogen ICEs for HDVs since 2015, introduced an 18-tonne hydrogen ICE truck based on the Mercedes Actros chassis in September 2023. Regensburg-based freight forwarder EP-Trans is currently testing this truck.

Daimler Trucks announced in October 2023 that hydrogen combustion could be a viable CO2-free pathway, mainly for vocational vehicles, and began testing a multi-purpose Unimog truck equipped with a hydrogen ICE. In late July 2024, Daimler concluded that the technology is viable for such applications and ready for commercialization.

Between 2021 and 2023, Renault Trucks was a member of a consortium of national labs, energy providers, and vehicle manufacturers to demonstrate a hydrogen ICE for medium- and heavy-duty trucks. trucks. The consortium was led by the Université d’Orléans and financed by the French government.

Other markets

European truck manufacturers are also showing interest in hydrogen ICE technology in other markets, mainly in North America.

Daimler Trucks North America presented its 15-liter 335-kW hydrogen ICE demonstration engine at the 21st Century Truck Partnership. The company also showcased its testing results of the demonstration engine at a California Air Resources Board workshop on the Role of Hydrogen in California’s Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fleet.

In November 2022, the Southwest Research Institute launched a joint project to develop a Class 8 hydrogen ice truck. The joint venture includes several European manufacturers, including Cummins, Bosch, and Daimler Trucks North America. Demonstration of the vehicle is planned throughout 2024.

In July 2024, Volvo and Westport Fuel Systems launched a joint venture in Canada to accelerate the development of Westport’s high-pressure direct injection technology. Volvo intends to deploy this technology in hydrogen ICEs.

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.

All data are supplied by Dataforce. All countries from the EU-27, except Bulgaria, are covered here. Data for Spain are sourced from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

All information presented in the technology spotlight section are based on public announcements and press releases made by truck and original equipment manufacturers, taken directly from their websites.

The post Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – June 2024)  appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Race to zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in China in 2023 https://theicct.org/publication/r2z-zero-emission-hdv-china-2023-aug24/ Wed, 21 Aug 2024 04:01:46 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=45469 Presents an overview of the 2023 market for new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles in China

The post Race to zero: Zero-emission bus and truck market in China in 2023 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Sales and market share

This spotlight presents an overview of the 2023 market for new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-HDVs) in China, covering buses, heavy and medium rigid trucks, and tractor-trailers above 3.5 metric tons.

In 2023, total sales of ZE-HDVs decreased by 2% to 110,400 units, down from 113,000 units in 2022. New sales of ZE buses contracted, while those of ZE trucks increased. Meanwhile, the overall HDV market in China grew by 15% in 2023 compared with sales in 2022. The resulting market share of new ZE-HDVs in 2023 was 8%, compared with 9% in 2022. Despite this slight decrease for HDVs, the overall sales share of zero-emission commercial vehicles, including light-commercial vehicles, continued to increase.

Figure 1. Sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles in China from 2011 to 2023

The ZE market share varied across HDV segments. Buses remained the segment with the highest ZE penetration, at 17%; city buses accounted for 83% of ZE buses, while coaches comprised the remaining 17%. Dump trucks followed with a 10% ZE market share. Compared with 2022, tractor-trailers experienced the largest growth in ZE sales at 42%, followed by utility vehicles at 41%. Among ZE utility vehicles, sanitation vehicles and refrigerated trucks had the highest EV market shares with 25% and 11%, respectively.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 2. Zero-emission sales share of heavy-duty vehicles by segment, 2023

Notes: Percentages under the green circles refer to the market share of ZE-HDVs within each segment and correspond to the secondary axis. Percentage values below the columns refer to each segment’s share of total HDVs sold in 2023.

In 2023, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), swap-capable BEVs, and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) comprised 80%, 14%, and 6% of new ZE-HDV sales, respectively. Sales of swap-capable BEVs and FCEVs reached 15,200 and 7,200 units, respectively— increases of 27% and 57% from 2022. BEVs remained the primary technology pathway for buses, rigid trucks, and utility vehicles, and swap-capable BEVs remained the leading technology for dump trucks and tractor-trailers.

The largest deployments of swap-capable BEVs and FCEVs were in the tractor-trailer segment, driven by increased adoption of these technologies for longer distance travel and a 2020 performance rating policy requiring low-emission transportation for 80% of bulk materials in select regions for pollution control (see “Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions”). Approximately 92% of FCEV tractor-trailers and 64% of swap-capable BEV tractor-trailers were sold in regions covered by this provision. The ZE-HDV utility segment saw growing shares of swap-capable BEVs (10% of ZE utility vehicle sales, from 7% in 2022) and FCEVs (9%, from 8%). Concrete mixer trucks led among swap-capable BEVs in the utility segment, while refrigerated and insulated trucks led among utility FCEVs.

Figure 3. Sales by zero-emission technology, 2023

Note: Values are rounded to the nearest hundred.

Manufacturers

In the ZE bus and truck markets, the top ten manufacturers accounted for 82% and 72% of total sales, respectively. Among bus manufacturers, King Long (20% of total ZE bus sales) and Yutong (17%) remained the leaders by a wide margin. King Long also led in fuel cell electric bus sales, followed by Zhongtong. In the ZE truck segment, Geely led in overall sales, followed by Dongfeng and Foton. While most leading ZE truck manufacturers adopted a combination of technologies, Geely’s sales were nearly all BEVs. Yutong led in FCEV sales, while XCMG led in swap-capable BEV sales.

Figure 4. Top ten zero-emission bus and truck manufacturers, 2023

Note: Data labels show market share of each manufacturer among total sales in each vehicle segment.

Cities

In 2023, 39% of battery electric bus sales and 53% of battery electric truck sales were concentrated in the top ten cities, by sales, for each segment. Shenzhen, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing ranked among the top ten cities in terms of sales in both vehicle categories. Cities in China have deployed various strategies to accelerate zero-emission truck uptake. For instance, since 2021, Tangshan—which has major ports and is a hub for the iron and steel industries—has been a pilot city in the national program for developing swap-capable trucks. Chengdu has promoted the adoption of ZE engineering and dump trucks through such means as preferential road access. Six of the top 10 cities for ZE bus and truck sales are in regions subject to the pollution control measures noted above.

Figure 5. Top ten cities in sales of battery electric buses and trucks, 2023.

Note: Data labels show the market share of each city in national sales of battery electric buses (left) and trucks (right). There were no swap-capable battery electric bus sales in 2023.

The ten cities with the highest fuel-cell electric bus and truck sales in 2023 accounted for 75% and 68% of each market, respectively. In 2020, the national government launched a pilot program for the demonstration of FCEVs in cities; five city clusters—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, and Henan—have since been selected for the initiative. In 2023, six of the top 10 cities for fuel-cell electric bus sales and eight of the top 10 cities for fuel-cell electric truck sales were part of these FCEV pilot clusters. Among non-pilot cities, Jining and Jinan, the second- and third-largest fuel-cell electric bus markets, are both in Shandong Province, which has been a demonstration province for research and application of hydrogen since 2021. Jinan is also home to the headquarters of CNHTC (also known as Sinotruk), a major HDV and ZE-HDV manufacturer. The top four cities for fuel-cell electric truck sales remained the same as in 2022.

Figure 6. Top ten cities in sales of fuel-cell electric buses and trucks, 2023

Note: Data labels show the market share of each city in national sales of fuel-cell electric buses (left) and trucks (right).

Battery technology and performance metrics

Key metrics

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) remained the dominant battery chemistry in the ZE-HDV industry in 2023, representing 99.9% of battery capacity in new ZE-HDV sales, a slight increase from 99.4% in 2022. The remaining 0.1% comprised lithium-ion manganese oxide (LMO) and lithium titanate oxide (LTO) batteries produced by smaller battery suppliers.

The battery supplier market continued to consolidate in 2023. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL)’s market share grew from 79% in 2022 to 87% in 2023. Correspondingly, the market share of smaller suppliers decreased. Vehicle manufacturers such as Yutong and XCMG predominantly sourced from one battery supplier, while others such as CNHTC and Dongfeng sourced from a variety of suppliers.

Figure 7. Zero-emission HDV battery chemistry, battery supplier, and manufacturer sourcing of batteries in 2023

Notes: Width of links is proportional to each battery technology’s relative share of battery capacity in new ZE-HDVs sold in 2023. Figure made using data from top vehicle models by 2023 sales, which accounted for over 75% of new vehicle sales in 2023.

The sales-weighted average battery capacity of new ZE-HDVs was 192 kWh; tractor-trailers had the largest average capacity (335 kWh) and rigid trucks the smallest (88 kWh). Meanwhile, due to their high energy consumption, tractor-trailers had the shortest range (253 km) while buses had the longest (484 km). The sales-weighted average battery capacity and range of buses were nearly unchanged from 2022, while all other segments saw an increase in both in 2023. Specific energy varied modestly by segment, ranging from 148 Wh/kg for rigid trucks to 158 Wh/kg for dump trucks, with a sales-weighted average of 153 Wh/kg across all vehicle categories. Utility vehicles saw a slight increase in energy consumption compared to 2022; little year-on-year change in energy consumption was observed in other segments.

Figure 8. Sales-weighted average type-approved battery capacity, range, specific energy, and energy consumption by segment, 2023

Notes: Reference lines and corresponding data labels show the sales-weighted average for all ZE-HDVs. A sales-weighted average reference line is not shown for energy consumption, which is largely determined by vehicle weight. Values are rounded to two significant digits for energy consumption and three for all other metrics.

Battery swapping technology

Swap-capable BEVs reached a 14% penetration rate in new ZE-HDV sales in 2023. As of June 2023, there were about 400 battery swapping stations for trucks in China.

Figure 9. Monthly zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle- sales by technology, 2023

Notes: White data labels indicate average monthly swap-capable HDV market shares. The grey reference line and corresponding data label indicate average annual swap-capable vehicle market share.

Across all segments, swap-capable BEVs displayed lower ranges and higher per-kilometer energy consumption than their non-swap-capable BEV counterparts. Moreover, with the exception of utility vehicles, BEVs had higher battery capacity than swap-capable BEVs across all vehicle categories. These differences are in part due to the different use cases for the two technologies. Concrete mixers and garbage trucks—heavy vehicles that require large batteries and high energy consumption—accounted for almost 95% of new swap-capable utility vehicles in 2023. Only about 22% of new battery electric utility vehicles were used for purposes that consume more energy than either of these two applications.

Swap-capable trucks usually have lower specific energy than their BEV counterparts. This can be attributed to the energy penalty associated with the weight of the frame surrounding the battery, which is relatively higher for smaller, swap-capable batteries. The slightly higher specific energy for swap-capable BEVs in segments other than rigid trucks reflects the use of BEVs in a greater range of applications requiring comparatively lower specific energy than swap-capable BEVs.

Figure 10. Comparison of sales-weighted average battery capacity, nominal range, specific energy, and energy consumption of battery electric and swap-capable heavy-duty vehicles in 2023

Note: Data labels show percent difference compared to BEVs.

Looking beyond 2023

The ZE-HDV market in China has experienced significant growth, bolstered by evolving regulatory initiatives designed to sustain and accelerate the uptake of ZE buses and trucks. Existing policies such as the broader performance requirements in the 2023 Clean Diesel Action Plan and national pilot programs to electrify public sector vehicles and promote swap-capable trucks in Baotao, Tangshan, and Yibin and to accelerate FCEV uptake in various cities will continue to drive ZE HDV market growth. As policymakers consider new regulations, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s heavy-duty new energy vehicle credit system and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s China 7 emission standards for HDVs, there is an opportunity to build upon past successes and drive the market beyond what current incentives and policies have achieved.
Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery-electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle intended for the transport of passengers or freight with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

Utility vehicles are vehicles mostly designed for specific purposes, such as sanitation, refrigeration, and engineering.

Regions covered by the 2020 performance rating policy include the provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi, and the cities of Beijing and Tianjin. The 2023 Clean Diesel Action Plan expands this policy to other regions, with a bulk material low-emission transportation requirement of 70%.

Data sources: Sales data for 2023 were provided by Gasgoo. The sales data exclude imports and exports. Imported HDVs would account for around 1% of HDV sales in 2023, assuming all imports were sold in 2023. Import data are from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, http://stats.customs.gov.cn/. Battery chemistry and supplier data are from Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption catalogue, while type-approved range, battery capacity, and specific energy are from the Ministry ‘s Product Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Adoption of New Energy Vehicles. Type-approved energy consumption is calculated from range and battery capacity. The number of battery swapping stations for trucks is from Tsinghua University’s Institute for Internet Industry, “Battery swapping standardization helps the development of China’s electric vehicle industry [blog post],” June 25, 2023, https://www.iii.tsinghua.edu.cn/info/1131/3464.htm.

 

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Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/race-to-zero-eu-hdv-market-development-q1-2024-june24/ Thu, 20 Jun 2024 22:30:51 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=43563 Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

In the first quarter of 2024, the market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) grew considerably, despite a contraction in overall HDV sales of 9% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The sales share of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) increased in all three segments—heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, and buses and coaches— compared to the first quarter of 2023. Germany continued to lead in zero-emission HDV sales, accounting for 40% of all sales in the EU-27.

Zero-emission heavy trucks represented more than a 1% share of the market, up from 0.5% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. In the light and medium segment, zero-emission vehicles made up more than 8% of sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from 6% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. Similarly, zero-emission buses accounted for 12% of bus and coach sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from less than 5% at the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Overall market developments

More than 86,000 HDVs, across all powertrain types, were sold in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024, a 9% decrease from the same period in 2023. Sales in the three biggest European markets—Germany (25,000), France (15,000), and Italy (9,000)—which together represented 57% of all HDV sales in the European Union (EU)—increased compared to the first quarter of 2023 (27%, 16%, and 9%, respectively), while the Spanish market shrank from 8% to 5%.

The seven top selling HDV brands in the EU represented 90% of all sales in the first quarter of 2024. Mercedes-Benz, the top selling brand (22%), consolidated its market share by an additional 1 percentage point (pp) compared to the first quarter of 2023. It was followed by MAN (15%, +<1pp), Scania (13%, +2pp), Iveco (13%, +1pp), Volvo (12%, -2pp), DAF (10%, -2pp), and Renault (7%, -1pp).

Heavy trucks represented more than 95% of the sales of brands Scania, DAF, Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks, while IVECO proportionally sold fewer heavy trucks (47%) than light and medium commercial vehicles (35%), and buses and coaches (19%). DAF had the highest share of tractor trucks in its sales mix (74%), followed by Scania (71%) and Volvo (65%). Other manufacturers, which represent 10% of the market, sold mostly light and medium commercial vehicles (43%) as well as buses and coaches (31%).

Figure 1.2. Manufacturer market share by segment

Heavy trucks

With a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, heavy trucks represented 77% of all HDV sales in the EU-27. Of the 67,000 heavy trucks sold in the first quarter, 750 (1.1%) were ZEVs. This is double the share of the first quarter of 2023, when only 500 of the 77,000 (0.6%) heavy trucks sold were ZEVs.

Germany continued to lead in total share of zero-emission heavy truck sales in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024 with 15%; France followed with 13%. In comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, sales in Germany represented 23% of all zero-emission heavy truck sales; sales in France were 16%. In the first quarter of 2023, 10% of zero-emission heavy trucks were sold in Spain, however, sales in Spain were less than 1% of the EU-27 total in the first quarter of 2024.

Volvo Trucks continues to consolidate its leading position in the zero-emission heavy trucks market. It had a 54% share of sales in this segment in the first quarter of 2024 (compared to 44% in the first quarter of 2023). Of Volvo’s battery electric heavy trucks sales, 34% are attributable to the 4×2 FH-Series, which made up 20% of all battery electric heavy truck sales, followed by the 4×2 FM Series, which made up 12%.

Mercedes-Benz increased its conventional heavy trucks sales share by 2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while its share in the zero-emission heavy truck market increased from 8% to 15% in the same period.

Light and medium commercial vehicles

With a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, 11,000 light and medium commercial vehicles were sold in the EU-27. Of these, 8% were ZEVs. There was an 8% dip in total sales compared to the first quarter of 2023, when 12,000 vehicles were sold. However, the number of ZEVs sold increased from 450 to nearly 950 in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, Germany had the most sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles (67% of sales compared to 28% in the first quarter of 2023). France had 11% of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 38% in in the first quarter of 2023.

Ford continues to lead the zero-emission market in this segment, despite a shrinking market share. In the first quarter of 2024, Ford supplied 40% of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles; at the end of the first quarter of 2023, Ford had supplied more than 50%. Fiat more than doubled its share of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the past year, supplying 30% by the end of the first quarter of 2024 compared to 12% in the first quarter of 2023.

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Of the 8,850 urban and interurban buses and coaches sold in the first quarter of 2024, 1,100 were ZEVs, a 12% share. City bus registrations in the same quarter amounted to 3,200 units, with 1,100—or 32%—being battery electric.

In the first quarter of 2023, all city buses sold in several countries, including Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands, were zero-emission models. In the first quarter of 2024, 1 and 3 conventional diesel buses were sold in Denmark and the Netherlands respectively. In Ireland, diesel bus purchases increased to 40% (60% of bus purchases were battery electric). In France, the sales shares of electric, natural gas, and diesel buses in the first quarter of 2024 were closely split, with natural gas buses accounting for most registrations. In contrast, 100% of the city buses registered in Luxembourg in the first quarter of 2024 were battery electric.

Looking at key market suppliers, Mercedes- Benz increased its market share in the zero-emission bus segment from around 5% in the first quarter of 2023 to nearly 15% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Technology focus: Zero-emission truck purchase subsidies in the EU

Looking beyond quarterly sales

Governments can implement several types of policy measures to support the development of the ZEV market. Due to the high purchase cost of ZEVs, and because most transport operators have low access to capital, direct purchase subsidies can be an effective measure to boost ZEV sales in the early adoption phase, though this is not a sustainable long-term measure.

Table 1 details the purchase subsidy programs available for zero-emission trucks across European countries, together with relevant provisions. As of May 2024, 11 countries in the EU-27, as well as Norway and the United Kingdom, offer direct purchase subsidy schemes to transport operators. These incentives typically depend on factors including company size, vehicle type, and whether a previous vehicle has been scrapped. France has agreed on a subsidy scheme for 2024 that has not yet started as of May 2024. Notably, France and Belgium subsidize the acquisition of battery-electric vehicles only. Germany, the largest market for these vehicles within the EU-27, discontinued its subsidy program (KsNI) in February 2024, and is allocating its budget to other supporting mechanisms, including the build-out of a comprehensive charging infrastructure network.

Beyond subsidies, other financial incentives such as comprehensive tax benefits are available in countries like Belgium, Denmark, France, and Spain, which could motivate companies to invest in ZEVs. Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Hungary offer CO2– based road tolls for diesel trucks and a simultaneous exemption or reduction for zero-emission heavy vehicles, following the Eurovignette Directive. Additional sub-national subsidies may also exist.

 

Country Implementing agency Program Funding available  and time window Eligibilitya Subsidy amountb Link to more information
Austria The Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) Emissionsfreie Nutzfahrzeuge und Infrastruktur (ENIN) €365 million All zero-emission commercial vehicles (N2 and N3) Up to 80% of the list price here
Austria Kommunalkredit Public Consulting (KPC) Umweltförderung KPC NA M3, N2, N3 and specialized ZEVs Up to €130,000 here
Belgium (Flanders only) Flanders Agency for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (VLAIO) Batterij elektrische vrachtwagen

€25–€35 million for the entire

Energy premium program

Fully electric commercial vehicles (N2 and N3) with purchase cost up to €400,000, capped at two trucks per company 24% to 32% of the purchase cost, depending on company size here
Croatia

Ministry of Environmental

Protection and EnergyEfficiency

Program sufinanciranja elektricnih vozila 2022   All zero-emission HDVs (M2, M3, N2, N3) Up to €53,000 here
Finland

Finnish Transport and

Communications Agency (Traficom)

  €2.5 million through 2025 Hybrid vans and trucks €6,000 to €50,000 here
France

Environment and Energy

Management Agency

(ADEME)

Appel à projet

€130 million between 2024 and December 2028 (funding through energy saving

certificates)

Battery-electric HDVs 2,100 HDVs will be funded with the available budget here
Germany Currently no purchase subsidy available (KsNI program phased out in February 2024)  
Ireland Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII)

Zero Emissions Heavy Duty

Vehicle Purchase Grant

Scheme

€3.5 million All zero-emission HDVs (M2, M3, N2, N3) 30%– 60% of the cost differential with a baseline diesel vehicle, depending on company size here
Italy

Ministero delle

Infrastrutture e della

Mobilità Sostenibili

DPCM €20 million N2 vehicles up to and excluding 12 tons, conditional on scrapping a Euro 4 or below vehicle €14,000 here
Malta Transport Malta Scheme for more sustainable transport €15 million Eligibility determined on a case-by-case basis 40% of the selling price, capped at €70,000 per vehicle here
Netherlands Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) AanZET €45 million All zero-emission trucks (N2, N3) Up to 29% of the purchase cost or €115,200 here
Norway Enova Heavy zero-emission vehicles grant N/A, monthly support rounds starting April 15, 2024 All HDVs over 4,250 kg, competition based on the amount of support provided per kilogram of CO2 reduced Up to 60% of the cost difference compared to a diesel vehicle here
Poland

National Fund for

Environmental Protection and Water Management

Support for the purchase or leasing of zero-emission vehicles of the N2 and N3 categories €234 million All zero-emission heavy commercial vehicles (N2, N3) 30% to 60% of purchase cost based on company size, with a limit of €88,000 (N2) to €132,000 (N3) here
Sweden Swedish Transport Agency Klimatpremien NA Electric light trucks and buses For light trucks, up to 30% of the eligible cost, not exceeding ~€4,550. For buses, 40% of the difference with the closest diesel bus for private companies and 20% for public transport authorities here
United Kingdom Department for Transport (DfT) Plug-in Van and Truck Grant (PIVG) 7.5M € through March 2025 Heavy commercial vehicles (N2, N3) emitting at least 50% less CO2 than an equivalent Euro VI vehicle and featuring a zero-emission range of 60 km, limited to vehicle models registered by OEMs Up to €29,000 for large trucks (100 grants available), up to €18,500 for light trucks (100 grants available). If grants are exhausted or a customer has exceeded their limit (10 and 5 respectively), then the large van grant of €5,800 per vehicle is awarded here
Note: There are currently no purchase subsidies available in: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, or Spain. The incentive schemes available for zero-emission HDV purchase are regularly being revisited and revised. The most up to date information can be found on the implementing agency’s website.

a N2/N3=goods vehicles with weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes/exceeding 12 tonnes. M2/M3=buses with weight up to/exceeding 5 tonnes.

b All values are converted to Euro

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery-electric, fuel cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion. 

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons. 

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tons. 

A light and medium truck is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5–12 tons. 

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in urban environments. 

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used in both urban and regional environments. 

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in regional environments. 

All data on the sheets for heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, buses and coaches, and the technology focus on zero-emission vehicle manufacturers by region are supplied by Dataforce. The exception is the battery size and chemistries in Figures 1.4 and 2.4 which were derived from manufacturer websites and press releases. All countries from the EU-27, except Bulgaria, are covered here. 

*This market spotlight was updated on July 3, 2024

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Electric vehicle market and policy developments in U.S. states, 2023 https://theicct.org/publication/ev-ldv-us-major-markets-monitor-2023-june24/ Tue, 04 Jun 2024 04:01:56 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=42507 This market spotlight summarizes key metrics related to electric vehicle market growth at the state level through 2023, including annual sales and sales shares, charging infrastructure deployment, state purchase incentives, and model availability.

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In 2023, sales of new electric light-duty vehicles in the United States reached about 1.4 million, up from nearly 1 million in 2022, resulting in a sales share of about 9%. Across the country, the electric vehicle market has grown at different rates in different states. This market spotlight summarizes key metrics related to electric vehicle market growth at the state level through 2023, including annual sales and sales shares, charging infrastructure deployment, state purchase incentives, and model availability.

Figure 1 summarizes electric vehicle (EV) uptake (both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid), charging infrastructure deployment, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) purchase incentives, and EV model availability in 2023 in the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, ordered from highest to lowest EV sales share. Markets categorized as “ZEV states” (solid bars) have adopted California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations, while those marked as “non-ZEV states” (hashed bars) have not. As of the end of 2023, 17 states and the District of Columbia had adopted California’s ZEV regulations. As shown in the figure, 15 of the 20 markets with the highest electric vehicle sales shares in 2023 were all ZEV states. The top 10 markets (nine states and the District of Columbia) also had EV sales shares greater than 11% and are all ZEV states.

Figure 1. Electric vehicle sales share, charging infrastructure deployment, purchase incentives, and model availability in U.S. states and the District of Columbia, 2023

Areas with high EV sales shares tended to have a high concentration of public and workplace chargers. The 10 markets with the highest EV sales share had close to 980 public and workplace chargers per million residents, on average. All ZEV states had close to 780 chargers per million residents on average, while non-ZEV states had around 320. The top 10 markets with the highest number of chargers per million residents in 2023—California, the District of Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Maine—have all implemented ZEV regulations. These markets also had more than 2 times as many chargers per million residents compared to the non-ZEV state average.

Figure 1 also shows that most ZEV states offered purchase incentives for BEVs, whereas non-ZEV states did not. The 10 markets with the highest EV sales shares have all adopted ZEV regulations, and nine offered BEV purchase incentives. Four of these markets also offered additional purchase incentives to low-income consumers. Fourteen of the 18 markets with ZEV regulations offered BEV purchase incentives with an average value of around $2,000. Three of the 33 non-ZEV states (Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas) offered purchase incentives in 2023 but these programs made only 500 to 3,000 rebates available, despite these markets being among the largest in terms of total light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales. Thus, the incentives for these three states are not shown in the figure.

Figure 2. Electric vehicle sales shares of new vehicles and model availability in U.S. states and the District of Columbia, 2023

The connection of ZEV regulations and model availability follows a similar trend. All ZEV states had, on average, 60 models available compared to 46 models in non-ZEV states. Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between state-level model availability and EV uptake for the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The bubble size is proportional to the 2023 new electric vehicle sales in each state, and the color indicates ZEV states (green) and non-ZEV states (purple). The figure shows that states with the highest number of EV models tended to have the highest EV sales and sales shares. Two thirds of ZEV states had 60 or more models available and sales shares of 7% or greater. Six of the top 10 markets by EV sales (California, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Colorado, Massachusetts), representing about 50% of U.S. electric vehicle sales, are ZEV states with 74 or more models available. The states with the fewest models available tended to have comparatively fewer EV sales and lower sales shares.

Figure 2. Electric vehicle sales shares in California, other ZEV states, and non-ZEV states, 2023

There are some exceptions to the relationships observed between ZEV regulation adoption, EV model availability, and high EV sales. Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are non-ZEV states with relatively high EV model availability. These four states are among the top six largest LDV markets in the country in terms of annual sales, and therefore are more likely to have more models available compared to states with lower annual sales. The LDV markets in these states were 11 to 22 times larger than those of Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont, and they had about twice the number of EV models available. Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont have adopted ZEV regulations but model availability in these states is close to the average of all states. The LDV markets in these states are relatively small and thus are more likely to have fewer EV models available than states with relatively higher populations and total LDV sales. However, compared to EV model availability in non-ZEV states with similar total LDV sales, such as Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming, these ZEV states had 1.3 to 13 times the EV sales shares of the non-ZEV states, and 1.3 to 7.5 more models available.

Overall, EV sales shares in ZEV states in 2023 were higher than non-ZEV states, as shown in Figure 3. California had the highest EV market share in 2023 with a 26.4% sales share. When California is excluded, the EV sales share of total LDV sales in ZEV states was around 12.0%, twice the percentage observed in non-ZEV states of around 6.1%.

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Electric vehicles (EVs): In this market spotlight, EVs include both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

Model availability: Includes models that automakers offered in the market in 2023 with more than 20 new sales.

California’s ZEV regulations: These regulations, which can be adopted by other states via provisions in the Clean Air Act, include the Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) regulation for model years 2015–2025 and the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulation for model years 2026–2035. The implementation year of ZEV regulations adopted in other states varies. More information can be found on this map (https://theicct.org/viz-us-state-clean-vehicle-standards-june24) that tracks states’ adoption and implementation year of California’s ZEV regulations for light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

Data sources: Electric vehicle sales information is taken from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation’s Electric Vehicle Sales Dashboard, https://www.autosinnovate. org/EVDashboard. Public and workplace charger data is from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator run by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center, https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest. Purchase incentive data also comes from the Alternative Fuels Data Center, https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state. Estimated 2023 population information for each state is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2020-2023/state/totals/. Model availability data is from the Automakers Dashboard, part of Atlas Public Policy’s online EV Hub, https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/automakers-dashboard/.

Purchase incentives: Rebates for PHEV purchases are excluded from Figure 1 because PHEV sales accounted for about one fifth of total EV sales in 2023 and several states have phased on PHEV rebates. For example, Massachusetts no longer offered a PHEV rebate as of July 2023, New Jersey has not offered a PHEV point-of-sale incentive since January 2023, and Maryland did not qualify PHEVs for an excise tax credit starting in July 2023.

U.S. state clean vehicle standards

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