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(Washington, DC) 12 December 2024 — The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) announces the launch of FUMES 2 (Fugitive and Unburned Methane Emissions from Ships Part 2), an expanded follow-up to the groundbreaking FUMES study measuring methane emissions from ships fueled by liquefied natural gas (LNG) under real-world conditions. This two-year research initiative brings together an international consortium including Explicit ApS, the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Queen Mary University of London, and the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS).

Building on the successful quantification of methane slip from four-stroke marine engines in the first FUMES project, FUMES 2 will address critical knowledge gaps in understanding methane emissions from LNG engines, LNG carrier ships, and LNG cargo handling. The project comes at a crucial time as the use of LNG as a marine fuel continues to grow, and as the global LNG carrier fleet has nearly doubled from 400 ships in 2014 to more than 750 today, with an additional 300 vessels on order.

“With the rapid growth of LNG shipping, understanding the full scope of methane emissions is increasingly important for climate policy,” said Dr. Bryan Comer, Marine Program Director at the ICCT. “FUMES 2 will generate the most comprehensive dataset yet of real-world methane emissions from using and transporting LNG.”

The two-year project will employ a combination of innovative methane measurement techniques, including:

• Onboard measurements of methane slip from at least 5 engines, focusing on two-stroke engines
• Onboard measurements of fugitive methane emissions from fuel tanks, cargo tanks, and other sources during at least 5 voyages
• Drone-based measurements of methane emissions from at least 20 instances of LNG cargo handling operations

This research is timely as the European Union (EU) prepares to implement its FuelEU Maritime regulation in 2025, and as it incorporates shipping into its Emissions Trading System, with methane emissions set to be covered starting in 2026. Additionally, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is finalizing its own greenhouse gas fuel standard and economic measure, which are both expected to be implemented in 2027.

The project’s findings will be published in peer-reviewed publications, a public report, and a public presentation. Moreover, findings will be presented to IMO and EU policymakers throughout the project to inform ongoing policy decisions.

Download a two-page description of the project here.

– end –

Media contact
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

About the Project Partners:

International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

Find us at:
www.theicct.org
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TNO
TNO is the largest independent research and technology organization in the Netherlands and one of the largest in the EU. We innovate, investigate, and orchestrate, collaborating closely with governments, universities and the private sector. We inform government on policies and empower evidence-based decision-making through rigorous investigations, cutting-edge scientific insights, and reliable measurements. By building national and international consortia and ecosystems, we drive technological and methodological breakthroughs that help to realise a secure, sustainable, healthy, and digital society, and strengthen the earning power of the Dutch economy.
https://www.tno.nl/en/

Explicit ApS
Explicit is a Danish technology company specialising in emissions monitoring using UAV technology. Accredited under ISO/IEC 17025, Explicit offers aerial surveys, verification, and expertise to industry, researchers, and authorities looking to understand the source and quantity of fugitive emissions, advance climate and environmental regulation, and document compliance. Servicing both the energy and maritime industries, the company has more than 10 years track record measuring fugitive and maritime emissions.
www.explicit.dk

Queen Mary University of London
At Queen Mary University of London, we believe that a diversity of ideas helps us achieve the previously unthinkable. Throughout our history, we’ve fostered social justice and improved lives through academic excellence. And we continue to live and breathe this spirit today, not because it’s simply ‘the right thing to do’ but for what it helps us achieve and the intellectual brilliance it delivers. Our reformer heritage informs our conviction that great ideas can and should come from anywhere. It’s an approach that has brought results across the globe, from the communities of east London to the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. We continue to embrace diversity of thought and opinion in everything we do, in the belief that when views collide, disciplines interact, and perspectives intersect, truly original thought takes form.
www.qmul.ac.uk

Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping
The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) is an independent, not-for-profit research and development center established in 2020 with funding from the A.P. Moller Foundation. Our purpose is to guide and accelerate decarbonization of the global maritime industry. This complex challenge requires unprecedented collaboration across sectors, industries, and geographies. Working with our partners, governments, authorities, public sector bodies, scientists, and organizations across the global maritime industry we mature solutions to the most pressing problems across the maritime value chain, from fuels to onboard solutions, regulations, and financing.
https://www.zerocarbonshipping.com/

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Figure. Timeline of central subsidy policies for ship scrappage and renewal in China

The post New central subsidies for scrapping and renewing coastal and inland river ships in China appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This brief finds that a U.S. MRV program could have covered approximately 11,100 ships that together emitted approximately 103 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions on voyages to, from, or between U.S. ports. This total is higher than official U.S. estimates of maritime emissions. Of the 103 Mt CO₂e, 43% are from outbound voyages, 33% from inbound voyages, 14% from cabotage voyages, and 10% in ports. Similar to the European Union’s program, if half of the outbound and inbound emissions and all cabotage and in-port emissions were subject to a GHG price ranging from $70 (the EU MRV carbon price as of September 2024) to $230 per tonne of CO₂e (EPA’s social cost of carbon estimate adjusted to 2024 dollars), the revenues could equal between $4.5 billion to $15 billion per year.

Figure. Million tonnes of CO₂e emissions that would have been covered by a U.S. monitoring, reporting, and verification system in 2022, summarized by voyage type

The post Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. maritime shipping: Potential benefits of a monitoring, reporting, and verification system appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This study assesses the environmental and public health benefits of reducing emissions from ships in the North Atlantic Ocean by designating the region as an emission control area (ECA). 

As one of the world’s busiest shipping pathway, a large volume of cargo vessels, tankers, and cruise ships traverse the North Atlantic daily. International shipping is a major source of sulfur oxides (SO_x), particulate matter (PM), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), which contribute to health and environmental problems, including premature deaths and damage to the marine environment, critical marine mammal habitats, and areas of cultural and scientific significance.  

One way to mitigate this impact is to establish an ECA, a designated area imposing stricter regulations to control shipping emissions of SO_x, PM, and NO_x. A previous ICCT assessment found that establishing the North Atlantic Emission Control Area (AtlECA), which includes the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones of the Faroe Islands, France, Greenland, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom, has the potential to significantly reduce emissions from ships by 2030. Additionally, it would serve as a link between already established ECAs in the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Sea, and connect them with recently approved ECAs in Norwegian Sea and Canadian Arctic.  

Figure 1. The North Atlantic Emission Control Area and other established and recently approved emission control areas

This study expands our previous evaluation of potential shipping emissions reductions in the proposed AtlECA by providing an assessment of the health and environmental benefits under different scenarios based on fuel mix and compliance technology assumptions. The results of these two studies will be a part of a submission to the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee on designating the North Atlantic Emission Control Area.

Key research findings include:

• International shipping significantly contributes to air pollution in the AtlECA member states, while establishing the North Atlantic ECA has the potential to reduce shipping-attributable concentrations of SO₂ by 86%, PM_2.5 by 59%, and NO₂ by 3%.
• The proposed AtECA could prevent between 118 and 176 premature deaths in 2030 alone under the plausible compliance scenarios. Cumulatively, between 2,900 and 4,300 premature deaths could be avoided between 2030 and 2050.
• The cumulative economic value of these health benefits could reach €19–€29 billion between 2030 and 2050.  
• By reducing SO_x and NO_x, thereby mitigating pollutant deposition and ocean acidification, this new emission control area could play a critical role in protecting the region’s marine biodiversity and cultural sites.

• Projected health benefits in 2030
• Projected cumulative health benefits 2030-2050

Estimated number of avoidable premature deaths in 2030 for different AtlECA fuel mix and technology compliance scenarios

Estimated value of health benefits (in 2021 Euros) associated with avoidable premature deaths in 2030 for different AtlECA fuel mix and technology compliance scenarios

 

Estimated approximate cumulative number of avoidable premature deaths in 2030–2050 under different AtlECA fuel mix and technology compliance scenarios
Note: Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

 

 

Estimated approximate cumulative value of health benefits (in 2021 Euros) associated with avoidable premature deaths in 2030–2050 under different AltECA fuel mix and technology compliance scenarios
Note: Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

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Figure. The North Atlantic Emission Control Area and other established and recently approved emission control areas

This study expands our previous evaluation of potential shipping emissions reductions in the proposed AtlECA by providing an assessment of the health and environmental benefits under different scenarios based on fuel mix and compliance technology assumptions. The results of these two studies will be a part of a submission to the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee on designating the North Atlantic Emission Control Area.

The post The North Atlantic Emission Control Area and other established and recently approved emission control areas appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

By amending the NTC 2008 so that it more closely aligns with current operational realities, the IMO can ensure that its regulations effectively address NO_x emissions and pave the way for more comprehensive environmental protections if the NTC is used to certify engines for methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from LNG-fueled and ammonia-fueled engines, respectively.

This brief presents new analysis that uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data to estimate real-world engine load distributions and provides recommendations for changes to the NTC 2008.

Key findings:

• The NTC 2008 test cycle is not representative of real-world engine operations
• Low engine load operations are more frequent than previously recognized

Figure. The difference in weighting factors derived from 2023 AIS data compared with those in the NTC 2008

Policy recommendations:

1. Introduce a new low-load test point at 10% engine load.
2. Adjust the maximum engine load test point from 100% to 90%.
3. Revise the weighting factors to better align with real-world engine operations:

• • 10% load: 0.15
  • 25% load: 0.30
  • 50% load: 0.40
  • 75% load: 0.10
  • 90% load: 0.05

Table. Recommended revised NTC 2008 weighting factors for E2/E3 test cycles based on AIS data

The post Updating marine engine emission standards using real-world data: A potential update to IMO’s NOx technical code appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Key Findings:  

• Opportunities for substantial revenue increases: ZECV construction could increase shipbuilder revenues from building new types of propulsion systems by 86% to 452% compared to conventional vessels.  

• Country-specific gains: Based on current market shares, China could see additional revenues of $3.1billion–$15.9 billion, Republic of Korea $1.5 billion–$6.2 billion, and Japan $2.1 billion–$12.5 billion by 2030. 

• Long-term potential: If ZECV uptake grows at a constant rate between 2026 and 2030, these countries could collectively earn additional revenues ranging from $14.2 billion to $77.4 billion.  

Implications
The transition to ZECVs presents a significant economic opportunity for shipbuilding nations. First movers in ZECV technology could gain a competitive advantage and potentially capture a larger share of this lucrative market.

The post Economic benefits of building zero-emission capable vessels in East Asia appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.