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In recent decades, both China and the United States saw trucking’s share of freight transportation grow the most, in tons and ton-km, while the development of rail and waterway freighting was relatively slower. However, rail’s share of U.S. shipping increased along with the growth of intermodal thanks to a framework that promoted cross-jurisdictional collaborations in the transportation system. This restructured the U.S. freight system, reestablished market rates, provided more flexibility in choice of modes, and helped reduce emissions from the sector even amidst growing freight activity.

In China, demand for heavy, bulk products and high-value manufactured products drove the rapid growth of freight activity for all modes in recent decades. To achieve a greener, more sustainable transportation system, the report highlights the need for China to shift more toward a services-led economy and focus on both cleaner energy and continuing to tighten all related environmental policies. Additionally, a move toward an efficient freight transportation system should focus on intermodal and promoting the full potential of rail, waterway, and pipeline while investing in technological innovation and fundamental research.

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Decreasing the number of miles traveled by cars and trucks is one of the most impactful measures considered in a recent ICCT study of how road transport can limit carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to align with a pathway that stays well below 2 degrees of global warming. These reductions in vehicle activity can be achieved by reducing car dependence in cities and improving freight logistics. Here we’ll explore how deep these cuts in CO₂ emissions could be and highlight some of the most promising policy options for cities seeking to realize these benefits.

As illustrated in Figure 1, ambitious zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales and avoid-and-shift measures together could avoid nearly 90 billion tonnes of cumulative road transport CO₂ emissions globally by 2050, or about 60% of the total CO₂ mitigation potential identified across all strategies in the ICCT’s analysis. More than half of the CO₂ emission cuts enabled through measures to avoid and shift car and truck activity come from reducing combustion engine car use in cities and shifting it toward alternative, zero-emission modes like walking, cycling, and electrified public transit. The other half of the cuts come from reducing the activity of trucks hauling freight.

Figure 1. Cumulative well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions in the ICCT Baseline and “All-Out” scenarios in Sen et al. (2023).

In analyzing the regional and global CO₂ mitigation potential of reducing car dependence in cities, the ICCT built on two previous assessments. One was a joint study by the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP) and the University of California, Davis, The Compact City Scenario – Electrified report, and the other was conducted by the International Transport Forum (ITF), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. These reports and the ICCT’s study add to growing evidence that measures to reduce car dependence and shift toward more sustainable modes in cities can be a powerful tool for cutting CO₂ and an important complement to accelerating vehicle electrification.

Establishing the potential for avoid-and-shift measures to reduce CO₂ at a global level can raise the profile of such measures beyond the local level, thereby helping to build coalitions among cities and countries and encouraging their inclusion in national planning and policymaking. To do this, the ICCT study first grouped cities by region and population size, then ranked them according to the average annual travel by car of city residents (in car-passenger-kilometers per capita), from most to least car dependent. The study then modeled reductions in per-capita driving by assuming that each city emulates other less car-dependent cities with similar geographic, cultural, and political systems—without supposing that all cities exploit the full range of theoretically available tools of urban and transport planning, policy, design, and technology.

The ITDP and UC Davis study produced a larger estimate of the potential of mode shift. In the study’s “The Compact City Scenario – Electrified,” cities are assumed to prioritize infill development until they reach a minimum population density of 4,000 inhabitants per square kilometer and then to ensure that any greenfield development has a population density of at least 16,000 inhabitants per square kilometer. In doing so, cities densify to a point where “transit, walking, and cycling can feasibly replace driving for most daily needs.” Under this approach, ITDP and UC Davis estimated that a roughly 50% reduction in car travel is possible by 2050 relative to current trends. By comparison, the ICCT study estimates a more conservative 37% reduction in car travel by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

Getting anywhere within this range of global car travel reductions will require action across thousands of cities. Luckily, those cities can expect a wide range of benefits in return for this action. Reducing reliance on cars not only adds more air quality and climate benefits on top of the shift to electric mobility, but also provides a range of further benefits, including making cities more economically productive and resilient. Residents in cities with a diversity of mobility options spend less money and waste less time commuting. Cities with good public transport, walking, and cycling infrastructure have healthier, happier, and more socially engaged residents who enjoy more equitable access to city services and lower rates of road fatalities.

So, what actions can cities take to reap these benefits? Reallocating street space and transportation budgets away from roadway expansion and toward walking, cycling, and public transit is one of the best ways to start. From there, a mix of urban planning and policy, together with a redesign of street space and the rules that dictate how it is used, can help ensure that all residents have access to a wide range of safe and affordable mobility options.

Policies that support more compact development—including enabling the by-right development of multifamily housing and the promotion of affordable housing in all neighborhoods—are likely to offer better mobility opportunities. Such policies would allow future residents to meet their daily needs more easily and sustainably. Transport planners could also help by designing streetscapes for people instead of cars in order to realize the benefits outlined by designing more “complete streets” (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The benefits of complete streets that promote multiple transport modes, versus only urban highways.

For example, it is possible to alter existing streets in many cities so that every resident lives on a street with sidewalks that are safe for people of any age, and within a 5-minute walk of a physically protected bicycle lane, a 10-minute walk of a bus line that comes every 10 minutes or less, and a 15-minute walk of rapid transit like metro or bus rapid transit (buses with dedicated, center-running lanes). Finally, measures that consider the costs cars impose on others, such as zonal and hourly parking, can offer better balance, as often only drivers benefit from public investment in road infrastructure while cyclists and pedestrians bear the costs of reduced safety, restricted mobility, and elevated air pollution.

A wide array of tools is available to policymakers in cities around the world, and many of these tools have the potential to provide net savings for public budgets and private citizen budgets. Transitioning to ZEVs and providing urban dwellers with a diversity of alternatives to cars will not only help meet climate targets but will make cities healthier, safer, and more equitable.

Authors

Jacob Teter
Independent Consultant

Taylor Reich
Data Science Manager

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VISION 2050: STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2°C

Emphasizes the effectiveness of ambitious zero-emission vehicle sales and age restrictions on used vehicle sales in significantly reducing cumulative CO2 emissions, along with other strategies to achieve well-below 2°C of warming.

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Decarbonizing TransportStrategiesZero-emission vehicles

SectorHeavy vehiclesLight vehicles

RegionCitiesGlobal

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Figure 1. Overview of supplementary financial support measures along LEZs/ZEZs targeted at private individuals and businesses in most financial need covered in this paper.

The findings highlight that these supplementary financial measures vary between cities, with aid amounts depending on the specific support measures, types of vehicles, and beneficiaries. Such measures aim to enhance equitable outcomes for LEZs and ZEZs, with positive effects observed in cities like Brussels and London, particularly among households in the lowest income brackets and in areas with higher levels of multiple deprivation. These case studies can serve as examples for other cities looking to implement similar zones while ensuring social equity and inclusion for all.

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The study finds that legal frameworks at the national level can allow cities to establish enforceable low- and zero-emission zones. However, even without a national framework, cities can establish such zones by using local and regional laws and voluntary pilot projects.

Careful design and implementation of these zones can improve equity. Exemptions and financial incentives targeting impacted communities and small businesses could enable an equitable transition. Pilot projects with an equity focus can raise public awareness and support before fully implementing a low- or zero-emission zone.

Public communication and consultation are critical in every stage of planning and implementation of low- and zero-emission zones. To ensure public support and address concerns, cities have worked with experts, local organizations, and businesses to raise awareness about their benefits. Measuring and publishing data on pollution from internal combustion engine vehicles can illustrate the potential health benefits of zero-emission zones.

*This paper was updated on 17 November 2023 to clarify details related to plans and goals for Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

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In November 2022, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for Euro 7, revising the current Euro 6 and Euro VI pollutant emissions standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. The proposed emission limits and testing procedures are less stringent than the recommendations of the impact assessment submitted to the European Commission, particularly in the case of light-duty vehicles. Regardless, the automotive industry and some EU Member States contend that the proposal is overly ambitious.

This briefing offers an international perspective to the discussion by comparing the stringency of the proposed emission limits and test conditions with their counterparts in the United States and China. With some preceding analyses, the author translated Euro 7, U.S. Tier 3 final, and China 6b emission limit values into comparable units for light-duty vehicles. This comparison shows the following:

• The combined NOx+NMHC limit put forth by the European Commission for Euro 7 light-duty vehicles of 128 mg/km is 2.9 times weaker than the U.S. Tier 3 final limit. Unlike for Euro 7, the U.S. standards do not require emission compliance demonstration in real-driving tests. Instead, more demanding laboratory tests are performed.  

• China 6b is more than 1.8 times more stringent for cars and 1.2 times more stringent for large vans than the Euro 7 proposal, with both regulations requiring emissions compliance demonstration in the laboratory and during real driving.  

The text concludes that the Euro 7 proposal does not tighten the emission limits to match those in the United States and China. The proposed Euro 7 regulation still includes important provisions that would lead to modest emission reductions. Still, for Euro 7 to successfully drive cost-effective technologies to the market, it is advisable to consider NOx emission limits akin to those found in other jurisdictions and to preserve all elements included in the Euro 7 proposal.

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The experiences of these cities provide valuable lessons on how to boost NECV adoption in China and elsewhere. Among the recommendations: Consider putting additional requirements on vehicle owners and users to qualify for government fiscal or other support. The review also found that central policies were the main driver for the adoption of new energy medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (M&HDVs). Thus, China could look at further encouraging local policies to accelerate the uptake of these vehicles.

The table below shows six categories of incentives and how their implementation varied by city. Six of the highlighted cities participated in a national Green Freight Initiative program to promote more new energy urban logistics vehicles. These cities, on average, had 13 times the registrations and 4 times the market share of non-Green Freight cities in terms of newly registered new energy urban logistics vehicles in 2020.

Table. Overview of NECV policy and incentive by city, 2020

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