Global - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/global/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Thu, 13 Feb 2025 16:49:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png Global - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/global/ 32 32 Supply-side regulations to accelerate the market for zero-emission heavy vehicles: Best practices from major policies https://theicct.org/publication/supply-side-regulations-to-accelerate-the-market-for-ze-hdv-feb25/ Fri, 14 Feb 2025 05:01:41 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=56110 Drawing from experiences in California, the European Union, and the United States, this brief examines how SSRs can be designed to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission HDVs through market certainty and compliance flexibility.

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Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) represent the second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. HDVs are also the largest contributor to air pollutants such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxide. As zero-emission HDV technology grows increasingly mature, supply-side regulations (SSRs) have emerged as an effective policy mechanism for addressing the climate and air quality impacts of HDVs. This research brief analyzes three major SSRs—California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, the U.S. Phase 3 HDV GHG emission standards, and the European Union’s HDV CO2 standards—and examines how such regulations can encourage and enable the zero-emission transition.

SSRs have three key advantages in promoting ZEVs. They provide assurance to manufacturers because they apply to all competitors in a market. They also increase the availability and diversity of zero-emission products; this helps boost demand from consumers. Finally, SSRs are easier to administer and enforce than programs aimed at consumers, as the number of manufacturers is typically small.

Best practices that have proven successful in SSR implementation include setting goals aligned with energy or economic objectives, measuring fleet-average compliance, establishing credit banking and trading systems, and creating frameworks for monitoring and reporting.

  • The most effective regulations align with larger climate, clean air, or energy goals while providing interim targets that facilitate experience with new technologies and ramp up economies of scale.
  • Fleet-average compliance systems reduce the cost of following the regulations and incentivize industry innovation and investments; weighting factors can help ensure that manufacturers do not overly rely on smaller HDVs for compliance.
  • Well-designed credit systems encourage early compliance and advance technology adoption while avoiding excess credit accumulation through appropriate time limits.
  • Public disclosure of compliance data helps build confidence and trust in regulations, especially during technology transitions.

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Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024 https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25/ Mon, 13 Jan 2025 23:01:30 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54611 This update to the ICCT’s Vision 2050 series tracks global progress on zero-emission vehicle policies and markets through August 2024. The analysis shows recently adopted policies could avoid an additional 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2050, but that a gap remains between this updated baseline and a more ambitious scenario aligned with the Paris climate goals.

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Executive summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.

Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO2 emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C

This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.

This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.

Key findings

Based on our comprehensive analysis of policy developments, market trends, and emissions trajectories, we draw the following conclusions:

Countries and regions are increasingly adopting supply-side vehicle regulations to accelerate ZEV adoption.
Since April 2023, such regulations have been adopted in six major vehicle markets, which are increasingly aligned toward achieving 100% ZEV sales for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2035. For heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), recently adopted regulations have paved the way for ZEV sales shares of 100% in California by 2036 and 77% in the European Union by 2040.
Sales shares of ZEVs grew rapidly in many markets across vehicle segments.
Recent trends demonstrate quick market responses across various regions and vehicle segments, with 2022–2023 seeing double-digit increases in ZEV sales shares for cars in Thailand and Vietnam and for buses in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile. ZEV sales shares for medium trucks more than doubled year-over-year in the European Union and the United Kingdom over the same period. These developments show that markets can respond swiftly when favorable conditions align.
International initiatives continue to build momentum for the global ZEV transition.
The ZEV Declaration and Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles have garnered new signatories and now represent roughly one quarter of the global new vehicle market. The ZEV Declaration gained three new signatories between April 2023 (Baseline 2023) and August 2024 (Baseline 2024): Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nigeria. The Global HDV MOU added 11 new signatories, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Mozambique.
Global road transport CO2 emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025.

In the Baseline 2024 scenario, emission reductions among three of the six largest emitters—the United States, the European Union, and China—are projected to offset emissions growth in other countries. However, these peaks could be delayed if global vehicle activity grows faster than anticipated, if existing policies are weakened, or if ZEV sales slow in major markets without binding policies.

Despite significant progress, a gap remains between current commitments and a Paris-aligned ZEV trajectory.
For LDVs, recently adopted policies and commitments have nearly halved the ambition gap, in terms of ZEV sales shares projected in 2030, between the Baseline 2021 and Ambitious scenarios. The gap has shrunk by one third for HDVs and by one fifth for two- and three-wheelers. While progress has been substantial, regional disparities persist, with major economies like China, Indonesia, and Brazil showing smaller reductions in their ambition gaps.

Download the supplemental data here.

For media and press inquiries, please contact Kelli Pennington, Global Communications Manager, at communications@theicct.org.

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Road transport CO2 emissions in the European Union could peak in 2025 https://theicct.org/pr-road-transport-co2-emissions-in-the-eu-could-peak-in-2025/ Mon, 13 Jan 2025 23:01:22 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54703 Recent regulations, including the CO2 standards for cars and vans, and its homologue legislation for trucks and buses, have put Europe on track for an early emissions peak. Berlin, 14 January – In the European Union, transport remains the only major economic sector where carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have risen since 1990—but this trend may […]

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Recent regulations, including the CO2 standards for cars and vans, and its homologue legislation for trucks and buses, have put Europe on track for an early emissions peak.

Berlin, 14 January – In the European Union, transport remains the only major economic sector where carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have risen since 1990—but this trend may be changing. New projections suggest that recently adopted regulations have put road transport CO2 emissions on a path to peak as early as 2025. Yet, this promising trajectory depends on maintaining existing CO2 standards and could falter if regulations are weakened.

The International Council on Clean Transportation released today a new edition of its Vision 2050 series, examining zero-emission vehicle policies and market developments globally. The study analyzes vehicle sales, energy use, and emission trajectories through 2050, evaluating transport’s alignment with Paris Agreement goals.

This year’s findings reveal the critical impact of policies adopted in the past 3 years. Road transport emissions in the European Union are projected to peak at nearly 800 million tonnes of CO2 in 2025 and decline thereafter by around one-quarter by 2035. This accelerated decline marks a significant shift from earlier projections, reflecting the impact of the transition from conventional cars to zero-emission vehicles.

“Our analysis shows that Europe’s road transport sector is at a historic inflection point,” says Felipe Rodríguez, ICCT Europe Deputy Director. “A decade after the Paris Agreement, Europe is now turning the corner and transitioning to technologies, namely electric vehicles, that will ensure greater energy efficiency and far lower emissions. However, today’s good news carries a critical warning: weakening the current CO2 targets for car and van manufacturers would jeopardize the decline in emissions, increasing the gap to meet our climate goals on time and undermining Europe’s role as a global beacon for other regions.”

EU road transport CO2 emissions trajectory from 2020 to 2050  

Projected EU tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C 

Compared to a 2021 policy baseline, the EU’s world-leading regulations put in place over the past several years have closed by 73% of the gap needed to align road transport with a Paris Agreement-compatible trajectory, as reflected in the ICCT Ambitious scenario. The 2023 EU CO2 standards for cars and vans, combined with the 2024 truck and bus standards review, have significantly narrowed the emissions gap: by 66% for heavy-duty vehicles and by 75% for light-duty vehicles.

Globally, the study shows a similarly positive finding: road transport CO2 emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025. According to the baseline 2024 scenario, road transport CO2 emission reductions in three of the largest vehicle markets—China, the European Union, and the United States—are projected to outpace emissions growth in other countries.

The stars of these global trends are three vehicle sectors: passenger cars, two- and three-wheelers, and transit buses. The fast-approaching total cost of ownership and purchase price parity between battery electric vehicles and conventional vehicles supports continued market uptake beyond regulatory requirements, though regulations are still the most promising policy lever to secure a Paris-aligned emissions trajectory.

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For editors: 

The study considers different carbon emissions scenarios:

  • Baselines 2021, 2023, 2024 consider road transport policies adopted until August of the correspondent year.
  • Momentum scenario builds on baseline scenarios and considers additional proposed governmental policies and targets.
  • Ambitious scenario considers the emissions trajectory compatible with the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well-below 2 °C.

Please use this link when citing the report: https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25

Publication title: Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024
Authors: Arijit Sen, Jacob Teter, and Josh Miller

Media contact
Susana Irles, communications@theicct.org 

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

Find us at:
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Global electric vehicle market monitor for light-duty vehicles in key markets, 2024 H1 https://theicct.org/publication/global-ev-market-monitor-ldv-2024-h1-dec24/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 17:16:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54056 This Global Market Monitor analyzes the development of the electric vehicle (EV) market for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including by manufacturer.

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Global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 7 million units in the first half of 2024 and were 17% of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold worldwide. China, Europe, the United States, and India collectively represented 68% of LDV sales, and 86% of EVs sold globally.

China continued to lead the global EV market with 4.3 million units sold in H1 2024, and this was 37% of its new LDV sales—an 8 percentage point increase from H1 2023. Europe saw a slight decline in EV sales share to 18% from 20% in H1 2023, while the United States maintained its 9% EV sales share. India held steady at 2% of new LDV sales with approximately 58,000 EVs sold.

Figure. Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) still dominated EV sales in 2024 H1 across markets but the shares varied. In China, the BEV share of EV sales fell from 69% to 61%, and similarly in the United States, there was a slight drop from 80% to 77%. In contrast, Europe saw an increase in the BEV share of EVs to 68%, up from 60% in 2023 H1. India maintained its strong preference for BEVs, which continued to make up nearly all (99%) the EVs sold.

In emerging markets, Vietnam and Thailand recorded the highest EV sales share among the markets considered, at nearly 16% and 14%, respectively. Brazil recorded a 5% EV sales share, and Türkiye a 4% share. Domestic vehicle producers, such as VinFast in Vietnam and Togg in Türkiye, dominated EV sales, meanwhile a mix of legacy automakers and newcomers such as BYD dominated sales in other markets. BEVs also dominated sales in these markets, comprising 83% of EV sales in 2024 H1.

Figure. BEVs dominate EV sales in emerging markets with 83% of sales, Vietnam and Thailand lead in EV sales share

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Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China https://theicct.org/viz-global-ev-sales-surpassed-7-million-units-in-the-first-half-of-2024-4-3-million-units-sold-in-china/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 17:12:00 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54529 The post Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Materials and battery supply chains ready to meet future global EV demand https://theicct.org/pr-ev-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 23:30:58 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=53856 A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) projects that global reserves of key minerals and planned mining and battery production capacities will be sufficient to meet the anticipated global demand stemming from electric road transport.

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Berlin, 16 December – The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is driving a surge in demand for batteries and the materials required to produce them. A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) projects that global reserves of key minerals and planned mining and battery production capacities will be sufficient to meet the anticipated global demand stemming from electric road transport. 

The report, Electrifying Road Transport with Less Mining: A Global and Regional Battery Material Outlook, assesses future battery material needs for battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles across all road transport sectors. It presents a global overview and in-depth analyses of specific markets (China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, and the United States), comparing projected battery demand with announced production capacities and mineral supply availability. 

“We have enough key materials and planned production to meet future vehicle electrification targets globally. While announced battery production capacities in the US and the EU would be more than sufficient to meet the 2030 demand with domestic manufacturing, it is critical to ensure that a large share of these investments can be realized and maintained”, says lead author Eyal Li. 

The study estimates that announced global battery production capacities exceed demand through 2030, even when only considering facilities that market research firm Benchmark Minerals Intelligence assesses to be “highly probable” to reach projected output. A large share of the battery production capacities are located in China. In the European Union and United States, the total announced capacities would grow rapidly to meet 99% and 130% of domestic demand by 2030, respectively. Considering only highly probable projects, these would still meet 103% of demand in the United States but they would cover just 72% of battery capacity demand in the EU, highlighting the importance to support the realization of announced investments. India and Indonesia face more limited production outlooks, with announced capacities meeting 49% and 44% of domestic demand, respectively, by the end of this decade.  

For the global supply in battery minerals, the report shows that the scaling-up of mining capacities is keeping pace with the growing demand in the medium term, while global mineral reserves are sufficient to support future battery production in the long term. Under conservative scenarios—assuming reliance solely on lithium-ion technologies commercialized by 2024 and the continued growth of battery sizes—cumulative demand by 2050 would utilize just 49% of current lithium reserves, 38% of nickel reserves, and 38% of cobalt reserves. 

The study also explores policies to reduce mining while maintaining the rate of vehicle electrification resulting from policies and targets that have been announced globally. Measures to foster an efficient battery recycling ecosystem, a reduction in the battery size of passenger vehicles, and a change in vehicle sales through avoided transport demand and modal shift policies could considerably reduce the demand in raw materials.  

“We don’t need to mine more than necessary. We can curb new mining demands and make electric vehicles even more sustainable. For example, reversing the ongoing trend of growing size of electric vehicle batteries would make electric vehicles more affordable and reduce the battery material demand by 28% already in 2035,” says Georg Bieker, Senior Researcher at the ICCT. 

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For editors:
Media kit is available here.

Publication title: Electrifying road transport with less mining: A global and regional battery material outlook
Authors: Eyal Li, Georg Bieker, Arijit Sen

Please use this link when citing the report: theicct.org/publication/EV-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24

Media contact
Susana Irles, communications@theicct.org

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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Electrifying road transport with less mining : A global and regional battery material outlook https://theicct.org/publication/ev-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 23:30:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=53814 The study estimates that announced global battery production capacities for electric vehicles exceed demand through 2030. For the global supply in battery minerals, the scaling-up of mining capacities is keeping pace with the growing demand in the medium term, while global mineral reserves are sufficient to support future battery production in the long term.

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The acceleration of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) entails a rapid increase in demand for batteries and material supply. This study projects the demand for electric vehicle batteries and battery materials globally and in five focus markets—China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, and the United States—resulting from policies and targets that have already been adopted or are under discussion. This is compared with announced battery cell production and mineral supply capacities. The study covers all segments of road transport, including sales in the light-duty, heavy-duty, and two- and three-wheeler vehicle segments as well as non-vehicular demand. Given the uncertainty surrounding the future development of battery technologies, this study also evaluates sensitivity scenarios for a higher-than-baseline market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and a large-scale application of sodium-ion batteries. Finally, this analysis explores how efficient battery recycling, a reduction in the average battery size of passenger BEVs, and a change in vehicle sales through transport demand avoidance and modal shift policies could reduce the demand for raw materials while maintaining a rate of vehicle electrification aligned with announced policies and targets.

Key findings

Our analysis supports the following conclusions:

Announced battery production plant capacities significantly exceed the projected global road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand.

On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the European Union, announced cell production capacities could meet an estimated 99% of the region’s road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand in 2030 if all projects are realized, while production capacities in the United States correspond to 130% of domestic demand in 2030. When considering only facilities that are either already operational and those under construction that are considered highly probable to reach the announced output, capacities in the United States correspond to 103% of domestic demand in 2030, while those in the European Union cover just 72% of road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand, highlighting the importance of EU Member States supporting the realization of announced investments. In India and Indonesia, the capacities of the announced cell production plants are comparatively more limited, corresponding to a projected 49% and 44%, respectively, of domestic vehicular battery demand in 2030.

Figure 1. Annual global battery demand by demand reduction scenario compared with announced cell production capacity

The scaling-up of battery material supply is projected to catch up with growing demand.
Assuming a continuous increase in the average battery size of light-duty vehicles and a baseline scenario for the development of the market shares of LFP batteries, we estimate that mining capacities in 2030 would meet 101% of the annual demand for lithium, 97% of the demand for nickel, and 85% of the demand for cobalt that year, including the demand for these minerals in other applications. When considering a scenario with higher market shares of LFP batteries, the capacities would meet a slightly higher 102% of lithium demand, along with 108% of nickel demand and 103% of cobalt demand. These scenarios highlight that the market can continue to react to low supply or high prices of individual materials by switching to higher market shares of battery technologies containing none or less of these materials.
In the long term, global mineral reserves are sufficient to meet battery demand.
In a scenario in which the battery demand through 2050 were met only with lithium-ion battery technologies already commercialized in 2024, and in which no material demand reduction measures were implemented, cumulative material demand would correspond to 49% of current land-based lithium reserves, 38% of nickel reserves, and 38% of cobalt reserves. As reserves include only those deposits that are currently explored and profitable to extract, they do not reflect the full availability of minerals. Given advances in mineral exploration and mining technology, deposits classified as reserves keep increasing, exemplified by a doubling of lithium reserves in the past five years alone, and it is likely that they will continue to increase in the future,
Despite a general reliance on global material supply chains, domestic reserves can partially meet domestic battery demand.
Individual countries and regions have ample reserves of certain minerals that exceed domestic demand. However, none of the focus markets of this study has sufficient domestic reserves of all key battery materials to meet their projected domestic battery demand. Building resilient international supply chains to secure ample battery-grade minerals is thus necessary to achieve a rate of vehicle electrification aligned with adopted and proposed policies and targets.
Smaller average battery sizes, especially for light-duty BEVs, can significantly reduce battery and related mineral demand in the near term.

Improvements in vehicle energy efficiency can contribute to reductions in average battery sizes for a given vehicle range, while the deployment of more charging facilities can lower the demand for longer-range BEV models. Reducing the average battery size of light-duty BEVs by 20% by 2030 compared to today’s level means more affordable BEVs with lower operational costs and would reduce the annual global battery demand by 28% in 2035 and 27% in 2050 relative to a baseline scenario in which the average battery size increases by 20% (or 10% in the United States) by 2030. This translates into an equivalent decrease in demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite in both years. Out of the evaluated measures, this was found to be the most immediate way of reducing battery (and thus raw material) demand.

Figure 2. Annual global raw material demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite under the Baseline and demand reduction scenarios, all with the Baseline battery technology shares

Policy recommendations

Policymakers could consider various measures to reduce the environmental impacts of new raw material mining and refining while maintaining the rate of vehicle electrification. On a regional level, several measures can support a reliable supply of battery cells and raw materials.

  • Policies reducing the average battery sizes of light-duty BEVs, establishing efficient battery recycling, and implementing avoid-and-shift strategies can help to reduce the demand for new mining.
  • Predictable BEV adoption policies, incentives for domestic battery material mining, refining, and cell production, and trade agreements with mineral producing countries could help to build reliable supply chains.
  • Setting battery durability standards and supporting research in emerging battery technologies can alter the pathway of vehicle battery-related mineral demand.

 

For media inquiries, please contact Susana Irles, Senior Communications Specialist, at communications@theicct.org.

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Annual global battery demand by demand reduction scenario compared with announced cell production capacity https://theicct.org/viz-annual-global-battery-demand-by-demand-reduction-scenario-compared-with-announced-cell-production-capacity/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 17:15:24 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54532   On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the […]

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On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the European Union, announced cell production capacities could meet an estimated 99% of the region’s road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand in 2030 if all projects are realized, while production capacities in the United States correspond to 130% of domestic demand in 2030. When considering only facilities that are either already operational and those under construction that are considered highly probable to reach the announced output, capacities in the United States correspond to 103% of domestic demand in 2030, while those in the European Union cover just 72% of road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand, highlighting the importance of EU Member States supporting the realization of announced investments. In India and Indonesia, the capacities of the announced cell production plants are comparatively more limited, corresponding to a projected 49% and 44%, respectively, of domestic vehicular battery demand in 2030. Read more here.

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Supersonic aircraft: Twice as nice, or double the trouble? https://theicct.org/supersonic-aircraft-dec24/ Fri, 13 Dec 2024 19:34:19 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=53600 Startups aiming to develop supersonic aircraft see a bright future, despite the high carbon intensity of their designs. But given evidence that supersonic aircraft will burn seven times more fuel per seat than subsonic aircraft, is there really room for supersonics in a net-zero future?

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The climate impacts of aviation are increasingly coming into focus. Following sharp traffic reductions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from airlines are expected to exceed 2019 levels this year. Recognizing the need to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, in 2022 aircraft manufacturers agreed to support the aviation industry’s goal of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2050.

Achieving that goal will require a gargantuan effort by stakeholders including airlines, fuel providers, and aircraft manufacturers, and an estimated US$4 trillion in new investments in clean fuels and planes for international flights alone. Moreover, according to our research, starting around 2035, all new subsonic aircraft would need to be zero-emission throughout their operating lifetimes.

That’s sobering, especially given how rare new aircraft types are today. Beyond work to certify Boeing’s widebody 777X, none of the “big three” western commercial manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer) have announced plans to certify new aircraft types before 2035. And only new types hold the potential for substantial improvements in fuel efficiency and, potentially, the shift to zero-carbon fuels like hydrogen.

But one manufacturer, Boom Supersonic, seems unbothered by the huge effort that’s needed. Boom just completed the eighth test flight of its one-third scale XB-1 demonstration aircraft. Boom aims to break the sound barrier by the end of the year, en route to bringing its Mach Number 1.7 aircraft, Overture, into service by 2029. They argue that supersonic aircraft “are twice as fast so it’s also going to decarbonise twice as fast.” But how does that square with flight physics and a net-zero carbon budget?

Due to technological advances since Concorde was developed in the 1960s, it’s expected that Overture will be more fuel efficient than the jet-fuel-guzzling Concorde aircraft that flew in the 1980s and 1990s. But subsonic aircraft have improved over time, too, and today’s advanced widebody aircraft like the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 burn 30% less per seat km than the B747-400 aircraft that shared the skies with Concorde.

Due to Overture’s high speed, small size and therefore poor economy of scale, small payload capacity, and limited range (it requires refueling stops on longer flights), it’ll inevitably burn more fuel per seat than competing subsonic widebodies. According to Boom, a seat on Overture will consume two to three times more fuel than business class seating on today’s widebodies, and seven to 10 times more fuel than an economy seat. Because CO2 emissions scale with fossil fuel burn, supersonics will have a disproportionately high climate impact.

Boom points to the promise of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to address these emissions. SAFs are alternative jet fuels produced from biological or renewable feedstocks that can have lower life-cycle emissions than conventional jet fuel. But SAFs remain scarce (just 0.2% of fuel supply in 2023), expensive (generally quoted as two to five times higher than fossil jet fuel costs), and they come with sustainability concerns of their own.

So, if Overture successfully makes it to market, what would that mean for a net-zero carbon budget? I ran the numbers using the approach from last summer’s paper with Supraja Kumar, namely, to estimate the GHG emissions associated with new aircraft deliveries throughout their operating lifetimes. I started by assuming that Boom will deliver 1,000 of its Overture aircraft by 2050; this is 33 aircraft produced annually at its Overture Superfactory in Greensboro, North Carolina, starting in 2029, and then a doubling of annual production via a second production line in 2042.

Drawing on previous modeling that we did with MIT, I assume that an average Overture flight burns 44 tonnes of jet fuel over a typical flight of 3,800 km and operates at an average speed of 1,350 km per hour (approximately MN 1.27 at 50,000 ft). That’s 75% of design cruise speed, which is the average for subsonic aircraft in our recent paper, after accounting for time spent in the slower takeoff, climb, descent, and landing phases of flight.

Each Overture is assumed to operate as a typical widebody subsonic aircraft, meaning that it flies an average of 2,900 hours per year over its typical lifetime of 25–30 years. I ran two cases to bound the range of uncertainty on future SAF use: a business-as-usual (No SAF) case and a Maximum SAF case that assumes ReFuelEU Aviation levels of SAF globally through 2050. That’s equivalent to the European Union’s ambitious SAF mandate, which will require 70% SAF supply at EU airports in 2050, but implemented globally. This is an aggressive assumption, given that SAF mandates are still in their infancy outside of Europe.

The results are frankly startling. Beginning in 2029, 1 year of Overture deliveries would emit between 113 and 155 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 over their lifetimes in the Maximum and No SAF cases, respectively. To put those numbers in perspective, in 2022, the entire country of Chile emitted 137 Mt of GHGs. That means Overture deliveries alone would be responsible for a GHG footprint equal to the fifth largest economy in South America, home to nearly 20 million people. Lifetime emissions from a year of deliveries are estimated to rise to between 128 Mt (Max SAF) and 310 Mt (No SAF) CO2 by 2050. That’s equivalent to about 40% of the emissions from Airbus deliveries in 2023, and would be from a manufacturer building less than one-tenth as many aircraft.

How do these emissions relate to aviation’s remaining net-zero carbon budget? The figure below shows cumulative lifetime emissions from Overture deliveries under the No SAF (blue) and Maximum SAF (red) cases. Absolute CO2 in billion tonnes (Gt) is shown at left and the share of aviation’s remaining net-zero budget is shown at right. I estimate that Overture deliveries through 2050 would emit between 2.4 and 4.8 Gt of CO2 over their lifetimes. That’s between about one-quarter and one-half of aviation’s remaining 9.4 Gt net-zero carbon budget.

Figure. Cumulative CO2 emissions (left) and share of a net-zero aviation carbon budget (right) from Overture aircraft by delivery year and scenario

This means that a single startup manufacturer could consume at least one-quarter of aviation’s remaining net-zero carbon budget through 2050. That leaves much less available for conventional aircraft to sip the SAF that Overture would gulp. And remember, if Boom’s estimate of Overture’s fuel burn per seat is correct, one gallon of SAF burned in a subsonic plane would provide 6.6 times more passenger kilometers of travel than on Overture.

So, in our carbon-constrained world, there’s reason to think the return of supersonic aircraft will be double the trouble, not twice as nice.

Author

Dan Rutherford
Senior Director of Research

Related Publications

Lifetime emissions from aircraft under a net-zero carbon budget

This paper assesses whether current manufacturer delivery projections are consistent with the 2050 net-zero target. Read more.

Tracking progress
Aviation
Global

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International research consortium launches FUMES 2 to further quantify methane emissions from LNG shipping https://theicct.org/pr-icct-fumes-2-project-summary-dec24/ Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:30:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=53407 Targets include two-stroke LNG engines, LNG carriers, and LNG cargo handling operations (Washington, DC) 12 December 2024 — The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) announces the launch of FUMES 2 (Fugitive and Unburned Methane Emissions from Ships Part 2), an expanded follow-up to the groundbreaking FUMES study measuring methane emissions from ships fueled by […]

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Targets include two-stroke LNG engines, LNG carriers, and LNG cargo handling operations

(Washington, DC) 12 December 2024 — The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) announces the launch of FUMES 2 (Fugitive and Unburned Methane Emissions from Ships Part 2), an expanded follow-up to the groundbreaking FUMES study measuring methane emissions from ships fueled by liquefied natural gas (LNG) under real-world conditions. This two-year research initiative brings together an international consortium including Explicit ApS, the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Queen Mary University of London, and the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS).

Building on the successful quantification of methane slip from four-stroke marine engines in the first FUMES project, FUMES 2 will address critical knowledge gaps in understanding methane emissions from LNG engines, LNG carrier ships, and LNG cargo handling. The project comes at a crucial time as the use of LNG as a marine fuel continues to grow, and as the global LNG carrier fleet has nearly doubled from 400 ships in 2014 to more than 750 today, with an additional 300 vessels on order.

With the rapid growth of LNG shipping, understanding the full scope of methane emissions is increasingly important for climate policy,” said Dr. Bryan Comer, Marine Program Director at the ICCT. “FUMES 2 will generate the most comprehensive dataset yet of real-world methane emissions from using and transporting LNG.

The two-year project will employ a combination of innovative methane measurement techniques, including:

  • Onboard measurements of methane slip from at least 5 engines, focusing on two-stroke engines
  • Onboard measurements of fugitive methane emissions from fuel tanks, cargo tanks, and other sources during at least 5 voyages
  • Drone-based measurements of methane emissions from at least 20 instances of LNG cargo handling operations

This research is timely as the European Union (EU) prepares to implement its FuelEU Maritime regulation in 2025, and as it incorporates shipping into its Emissions Trading System, with methane emissions set to be covered starting in 2026. Additionally, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is finalizing its own greenhouse gas fuel standard and economic measure, which are both expected to be implemented in 2027.

The project’s findings will be published in peer-reviewed publications, a public report, and a public presentation. Moreover, findings will be presented to IMO and EU policymakers throughout the project to inform ongoing policy decisions.

Download a two-page description of the project here.

– end –

Media contact
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

About the Project Partners:

International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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TNO
TNO is the largest independent research and technology organization in the Netherlands and one of the largest in the EU. We innovate, investigate, and orchestrate, collaborating closely with governments, universities and the private sector. We inform government on policies and empower evidence-based decision-making through rigorous investigations, cutting-edge scientific insights, and reliable measurements. By building national and international consortia and ecosystems, we drive technological and methodological breakthroughs that help to realise a secure, sustainable, healthy, and digital society, and strengthen the earning power of the Dutch economy.
https://www.tno.nl/en/

Explicit ApS
Explicit is a Danish technology company specialising in emissions monitoring using UAV technology. Accredited under ISO/IEC 17025, Explicit offers aerial surveys, verification, and expertise to industry, researchers, and authorities looking to understand the source and quantity of fugitive emissions, advance climate and environmental regulation, and document compliance. Servicing both the energy and maritime industries, the company has more than 10 years track record measuring fugitive and maritime emissions.
www.explicit.dk

Queen Mary University of London
At Queen Mary University of London, we believe that a diversity of ideas helps us achieve the previously unthinkable. Throughout our history, we’ve fostered social justice and improved lives through academic excellence. And we continue to live and breathe this spirit today, not because it’s simply ‘the right thing to do’ but for what it helps us achieve and the intellectual brilliance it delivers. Our reformer heritage informs our conviction that great ideas can and should come from anywhere. It’s an approach that has brought results across the globe, from the communities of east London to the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. We continue to embrace diversity of thought and opinion in everything we do, in the belief that when views collide, disciplines interact, and perspectives intersect, truly original thought takes form.
www.qmul.ac.uk

Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping
The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) is an independent, not-for-profit research and development center established in 2020 with funding from the A.P. Moller Foundation. Our purpose is to guide and accelerate decarbonization of the global maritime industry. This complex challenge requires unprecedented collaboration across sectors, industries, and geographies. Working with our partners, governments, authorities, public sector bodies, scientists, and organizations across the global maritime industry we mature solutions to the most pressing problems across the maritime value chain, from fuels to onboard solutions, regulations, and financing.
https://www.zerocarbonshipping.com/

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