Asia & Pacific - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/asia-pacific/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Fri, 14 Feb 2025 16:56:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png Asia & Pacific - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/asia-pacific/ 32 32 Fuel consumption baseline analysis for two-wheelers in Vietnam, 2017–2023 https://theicct.org/publication/fuel-consumption-baseline-analysis-2w-vietnam-2017-2023-feb25/ Fri, 14 Feb 2025 16:56:55 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=55491 This study collects and analyzes the characteristics and baseline fuel consumption of two-wheelers sold in Vietnam from 2017 to 2021. The results will serve as a foundation for further policy development.

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Two-wheelers, including motorcycles and mopeds, are major modes of transport in Vietnam. In 2023, over 74 million two-wheelers were registered in the country, accounting for more than 90% of the motorized vehicle fleet. Vietnam’s two-wheeler market in term of new sales is ranked second in the ASEAN region, after Indonesia. The country’s reliance on fossil fuel-powered vehicles has severely degraded air quality, leading to an increase in respiratory illnesses and other health problems.   

In Vietnam’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments under the Paris Agreement, the country committed to regulating fuel consumption for newly manufactured, assembled, and imported motor vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. Given the dominance of motorcycles and mopeds, such measures are crucial to helping Vietnam meet its climate goals and improve air quality.   

This study collects and analyzes the characteristics and baseline fuel consumption of two-wheelers sold in Vietnam from 2017 to 2021. The results of this study will serve as a foundation for further development of mandatory fuel consumption standards for two-wheelers to reduce the overall CO2 emissions in Vietnam’s transport sector.  

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Roadmap to zero: The pace of Indonesia’s electric vehicle transition https://theicct.org/publication/pathways-and-policies-to-achieve-net-zero-road-transport-in-indonesia-by-2060-feb25/ Tue, 11 Feb 2025 18:57:37 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=48549 Presents ambitious-but-feasible timelines for the pace at which Indonesia could transition to zero-emission vehicles in the two-wheeler, four-wheeler, commercial truck, and bus segments to align with its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060.

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Indonesia’s transportation sector is at a transformative moment. On-road vehicle stock grew by an average of 5% annually from 2015–2024 and the country is exploring pathways to transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in line with its goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. The wide variability in the technical characteristics, uses, and emissions across vehicle types means that Indonesia’s ZEV transition will be different for each vehicle category. To help, this paper presents ambitious-but-feasible timelines for the transition to zero-emission two- and three-wheelers, four-wheelers (cars and light commercial vehicles, which are vans and light trucks), buses, and medium and heavy trucks in Indonesia.

The authors modeled multiple scenarios, including two pathways that could put Indonesia on a path to reach net-zero emissions from road transport by 2060 (figure below). In the more ambitious Best Practice scenario, ZEVs are 100% of new sales in all vehicle segments by 2040, and the Net Zero scenario is a slightly more gradual approach where ZEVs reach 100% of new sales in all segments by 2045. Both scenarios would deliver substantial benefits in terms of reduced fuel consumption and avoided emissions when compared with the modeled Announced Targets 2050 scenario. Cumulative liquid fuel consumption through 2060 is estimated to drop by 5.1 billion (Net Zero scenario)–6.7 billion (Best Practice scenario) barrels of oil equivalent and result in 2.4 Gt (Net Zero)–3.1 Gt (Best Practice) of avoided tank-to-wheel carbon dioxide emissions.

Figure. Two scenarios that could put Indonesia on pathway to net-zero emissions from road transport by 2060

 

Access the presentation of this report here.

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Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024 https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25/ Mon, 13 Jan 2025 23:01:30 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54611 This update to the ICCT’s Vision 2050 series tracks global progress on zero-emission vehicle policies and markets through August 2024. The analysis shows recently adopted policies could avoid an additional 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2050, but that a gap remains between this updated baseline and a more ambitious scenario aligned with the Paris climate goals.

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Executive summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.

Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO2 emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C

This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.

This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.

Key findings

Based on our comprehensive analysis of policy developments, market trends, and emissions trajectories, we draw the following conclusions:

Countries and regions are increasingly adopting supply-side vehicle regulations to accelerate ZEV adoption.
Since April 2023, such regulations have been adopted in six major vehicle markets, which are increasingly aligned toward achieving 100% ZEV sales for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2035. For heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), recently adopted regulations have paved the way for ZEV sales shares of 100% in California by 2036 and 77% in the European Union by 2040.
Sales shares of ZEVs grew rapidly in many markets across vehicle segments.
Recent trends demonstrate quick market responses across various regions and vehicle segments, with 2022–2023 seeing double-digit increases in ZEV sales shares for cars in Thailand and Vietnam and for buses in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile. ZEV sales shares for medium trucks more than doubled year-over-year in the European Union and the United Kingdom over the same period. These developments show that markets can respond swiftly when favorable conditions align.
International initiatives continue to build momentum for the global ZEV transition.
The ZEV Declaration and Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles have garnered new signatories and now represent roughly one quarter of the global new vehicle market. The ZEV Declaration gained three new signatories between April 2023 (Baseline 2023) and August 2024 (Baseline 2024): Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nigeria. The Global HDV MOU added 11 new signatories, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Mozambique.
Global road transport CO2 emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025.

In the Baseline 2024 scenario, emission reductions among three of the six largest emitters—the United States, the European Union, and China—are projected to offset emissions growth in other countries. However, these peaks could be delayed if global vehicle activity grows faster than anticipated, if existing policies are weakened, or if ZEV sales slow in major markets without binding policies.

Despite significant progress, a gap remains between current commitments and a Paris-aligned ZEV trajectory.
For LDVs, recently adopted policies and commitments have nearly halved the ambition gap, in terms of ZEV sales shares projected in 2030, between the Baseline 2021 and Ambitious scenarios. The gap has shrunk by one third for HDVs and by one fifth for two- and three-wheelers. While progress has been substantial, regional disparities persist, with major economies like China, Indonesia, and Brazil showing smaller reductions in their ambition gaps.

Download the supplemental data here.

For media and press inquiries, please contact Kelli Pennington, Global Communications Manager, at communications@theicct.org.

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Materials and battery supply chains ready to meet future global EV demand https://theicct.org/pr-ev-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 23:30:58 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=53856 A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) projects that global reserves of key minerals and planned mining and battery production capacities will be sufficient to meet the anticipated global demand stemming from electric road transport.

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Berlin, 16 December – The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is driving a surge in demand for batteries and the materials required to produce them. A new study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) projects that global reserves of key minerals and planned mining and battery production capacities will be sufficient to meet the anticipated global demand stemming from electric road transport. 

The report, Electrifying Road Transport with Less Mining: A Global and Regional Battery Material Outlook, assesses future battery material needs for battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles across all road transport sectors. It presents a global overview and in-depth analyses of specific markets (China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, and the United States), comparing projected battery demand with announced production capacities and mineral supply availability. 

“We have enough key materials and planned production to meet future vehicle electrification targets globally. While announced battery production capacities in the US and the EU would be more than sufficient to meet the 2030 demand with domestic manufacturing, it is critical to ensure that a large share of these investments can be realized and maintained”, says lead author Eyal Li. 

The study estimates that announced global battery production capacities exceed demand through 2030, even when only considering facilities that market research firm Benchmark Minerals Intelligence assesses to be “highly probable” to reach projected output. A large share of the battery production capacities are located in China. In the European Union and United States, the total announced capacities would grow rapidly to meet 99% and 130% of domestic demand by 2030, respectively. Considering only highly probable projects, these would still meet 103% of demand in the United States but they would cover just 72% of battery capacity demand in the EU, highlighting the importance to support the realization of announced investments. India and Indonesia face more limited production outlooks, with announced capacities meeting 49% and 44% of domestic demand, respectively, by the end of this decade.  

For the global supply in battery minerals, the report shows that the scaling-up of mining capacities is keeping pace with the growing demand in the medium term, while global mineral reserves are sufficient to support future battery production in the long term. Under conservative scenarios—assuming reliance solely on lithium-ion technologies commercialized by 2024 and the continued growth of battery sizes—cumulative demand by 2050 would utilize just 49% of current lithium reserves, 38% of nickel reserves, and 38% of cobalt reserves. 

The study also explores policies to reduce mining while maintaining the rate of vehicle electrification resulting from policies and targets that have been announced globally. Measures to foster an efficient battery recycling ecosystem, a reduction in the battery size of passenger vehicles, and a change in vehicle sales through avoided transport demand and modal shift policies could considerably reduce the demand in raw materials.  

“We don’t need to mine more than necessary. We can curb new mining demands and make electric vehicles even more sustainable. For example, reversing the ongoing trend of growing size of electric vehicle batteries would make electric vehicles more affordable and reduce the battery material demand by 28% already in 2035,” says Georg Bieker, Senior Researcher at the ICCT. 

-END-

For editors:
Media kit is available here.

Publication title: Electrifying road transport with less mining: A global and regional battery material outlook
Authors: Eyal Li, Georg Bieker, Arijit Sen

Please use this link when citing the report: theicct.org/publication/EV-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24

Media contact
Susana Irles, communications@theicct.org

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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Electrifying road transport with less mining : A global and regional battery material outlook https://theicct.org/publication/ev-battery-materials-demand-supply-dec24/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 23:30:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=53814 The study estimates that announced global battery production capacities for electric vehicles exceed demand through 2030. For the global supply in battery minerals, the scaling-up of mining capacities is keeping pace with the growing demand in the medium term, while global mineral reserves are sufficient to support future battery production in the long term.

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The acceleration of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) entails a rapid increase in demand for batteries and material supply. This study projects the demand for electric vehicle batteries and battery materials globally and in five focus markets—China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, and the United States—resulting from policies and targets that have already been adopted or are under discussion. This is compared with announced battery cell production and mineral supply capacities. The study covers all segments of road transport, including sales in the light-duty, heavy-duty, and two- and three-wheeler vehicle segments as well as non-vehicular demand. Given the uncertainty surrounding the future development of battery technologies, this study also evaluates sensitivity scenarios for a higher-than-baseline market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and a large-scale application of sodium-ion batteries. Finally, this analysis explores how efficient battery recycling, a reduction in the average battery size of passenger BEVs, and a change in vehicle sales through transport demand avoidance and modal shift policies could reduce the demand for raw materials while maintaining a rate of vehicle electrification aligned with announced policies and targets.

Key findings

Our analysis supports the following conclusions:

Announced battery production plant capacities significantly exceed the projected global road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand.

On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the European Union, announced cell production capacities could meet an estimated 99% of the region’s road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand in 2030 if all projects are realized, while production capacities in the United States correspond to 130% of domestic demand in 2030. When considering only facilities that are either already operational and those under construction that are considered highly probable to reach the announced output, capacities in the United States correspond to 103% of domestic demand in 2030, while those in the European Union cover just 72% of road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand, highlighting the importance of EU Member States supporting the realization of announced investments. In India and Indonesia, the capacities of the announced cell production plants are comparatively more limited, corresponding to a projected 49% and 44%, respectively, of domestic vehicular battery demand in 2030.

Figure 1. Annual global battery demand by demand reduction scenario compared with announced cell production capacity

The scaling-up of battery material supply is projected to catch up with growing demand.
Assuming a continuous increase in the average battery size of light-duty vehicles and a baseline scenario for the development of the market shares of LFP batteries, we estimate that mining capacities in 2030 would meet 101% of the annual demand for lithium, 97% of the demand for nickel, and 85% of the demand for cobalt that year, including the demand for these minerals in other applications. When considering a scenario with higher market shares of LFP batteries, the capacities would meet a slightly higher 102% of lithium demand, along with 108% of nickel demand and 103% of cobalt demand. These scenarios highlight that the market can continue to react to low supply or high prices of individual materials by switching to higher market shares of battery technologies containing none or less of these materials.
In the long term, global mineral reserves are sufficient to meet battery demand.
In a scenario in which the battery demand through 2050 were met only with lithium-ion battery technologies already commercialized in 2024, and in which no material demand reduction measures were implemented, cumulative material demand would correspond to 49% of current land-based lithium reserves, 38% of nickel reserves, and 38% of cobalt reserves. As reserves include only those deposits that are currently explored and profitable to extract, they do not reflect the full availability of minerals. Given advances in mineral exploration and mining technology, deposits classified as reserves keep increasing, exemplified by a doubling of lithium reserves in the past five years alone, and it is likely that they will continue to increase in the future,
Despite a general reliance on global material supply chains, domestic reserves can partially meet domestic battery demand.
Individual countries and regions have ample reserves of certain minerals that exceed domestic demand. However, none of the focus markets of this study has sufficient domestic reserves of all key battery materials to meet their projected domestic battery demand. Building resilient international supply chains to secure ample battery-grade minerals is thus necessary to achieve a rate of vehicle electrification aligned with adopted and proposed policies and targets.
Smaller average battery sizes, especially for light-duty BEVs, can significantly reduce battery and related mineral demand in the near term.

Improvements in vehicle energy efficiency can contribute to reductions in average battery sizes for a given vehicle range, while the deployment of more charging facilities can lower the demand for longer-range BEV models. Reducing the average battery size of light-duty BEVs by 20% by 2030 compared to today’s level means more affordable BEVs with lower operational costs and would reduce the annual global battery demand by 28% in 2035 and 27% in 2050 relative to a baseline scenario in which the average battery size increases by 20% (or 10% in the United States) by 2030. This translates into an equivalent decrease in demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite in both years. Out of the evaluated measures, this was found to be the most immediate way of reducing battery (and thus raw material) demand.

Figure 2. Annual global raw material demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite under the Baseline and demand reduction scenarios, all with the Baseline battery technology shares

Policy recommendations

Policymakers could consider various measures to reduce the environmental impacts of new raw material mining and refining while maintaining the rate of vehicle electrification. On a regional level, several measures can support a reliable supply of battery cells and raw materials.

  • Policies reducing the average battery sizes of light-duty BEVs, establishing efficient battery recycling, and implementing avoid-and-shift strategies can help to reduce the demand for new mining.
  • Predictable BEV adoption policies, incentives for domestic battery material mining, refining, and cell production, and trade agreements with mineral producing countries could help to build reliable supply chains.
  • Setting battery durability standards and supporting research in emerging battery technologies can alter the pathway of vehicle battery-related mineral demand.

 

For media inquiries, please contact Susana Irles, Senior Communications Specialist, at communications@theicct.org.

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Annual global battery demand by demand reduction scenario compared with announced cell production capacity https://theicct.org/viz-annual-global-battery-demand-by-demand-reduction-scenario-compared-with-announced-cell-production-capacity/ Sun, 15 Dec 2024 17:15:24 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54532   On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the […]

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On a global level, the total announced cell production capacity and the proportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projected demand at least until 2030. The majority of the announced cell production capacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67% in 2030. In the European Union, announced cell production capacities could meet an estimated 99% of the region’s road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand in 2030 if all projects are realized, while production capacities in the United States correspond to 130% of domestic demand in 2030. When considering only facilities that are either already operational and those under construction that are considered highly probable to reach the announced output, capacities in the United States correspond to 103% of domestic demand in 2030, while those in the European Union cover just 72% of road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand, highlighting the importance of EU Member States supporting the realization of announced investments. In India and Indonesia, the capacities of the announced cell production plants are comparatively more limited, corresponding to a projected 49% and 44%, respectively, of domestic vehicular battery demand in 2030. Read more here.

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Developing home charging can cut Indonesia’s public charging costs https://theicct.org/developing-home-charging-can-cut-indonesias-public-charging-costs-nov24/ Wed, 27 Nov 2024 05:00:44 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=52858 Explores the strategic importance of promoting home EV charging in Indonesia.

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Supporting the deployment of electric vehicle (EV) chargers is a critical part of vehicle electrification efforts around the world, including in Indonesia. Leveraging our study assessing charging infrastructure needs for electric cars in the country in 2030, the ICCT recently undertook new analysis to support Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership in developing the 2024 Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. We’ve teamed up with the Energy Efficiency and Electrification Working Group under the leadership of the Net Zero World Initiative, and as part of this, extended our 2030 charging infrastructure projections to estimate needs in Indonesia in 2035.

In short, pushing for greater adoption of home charging will be crucial for reducing government expenditure on public chargers. Let’s go through the basic elements first and then we’ll detail how we arrived at this.

For EVs, there are private chargers and public chargers. In our updated analysis to 2035, we categorize chargers located in single-family homes and vehicle depots as private chargers. The costs of installing private chargers are borne by individuals or companies. Under the category of public chargers are public destination, en-route, workplace, and public residential chargers. (In our earlier study, public residential was not included. However, as more and more chargers are being installed in residential complexes and apartment buildings in Indonesia, our analysis to 2035 includes public residential.) Although the funds for public charging infrastructure are usually provided by the government, regulation in Indonesia allows private actors to invest.

There are also two primary charger types in Indonesia: Level 2 and direct current fast charging (DCFC). The capacities of Level 2 chargers range from 7 kW to 22 kW, and these are mostly used for home, depot, public destination, workplace, and public residential charging. DCFC capacities in Indonesia range from 25 kW to 200 kW and these can fully charge an electric car in 20–60 minutes; DCFC is often used for en-route and public destination charging.

Table 1 details the results of our assessment of charging needs to 2035, for which we considered three scenarios of home charging adoption, 60%, 70%, and 80%. Under a scenario where 80% of EV owners have home charging, we estimate that 71,647 public chargers would be needed, and these would cost approximately Rp. 15.4 trillion (US$964 million) by 2035. The need for public chargers is greater when there is less home charging, and with adoption rates of 70% and 60%, it would require 93,876 public chargers and 116,112 public chargers, respectively. The total investment needed could be as high as Rp. 21.2 trillion (US$1.33 billion) under the 60% scenario and around Rp. 18.3 trillion (US$1.15 billion) for the 70% scenario.

Table 1. Total chargers (units) needed by 2035 under 60%, 70%, and 80% home charger adoption

Category

Charger location

Home charging adoption share scenarios

   

60%

70%

80%

Private

Depot

2,433

2,433

2,433

 

Home

1,655,458

1,931,026

2,206,596

 

Total private chargers

1,657,891

1,933,459

2,209,029

Public

Public destination

43,513

37,757

32,002

 

En-route

6,184

6,184

6,184

 

Public residential

63,109

47,419

31,726

 

Workplace

3,306

2,516

1,735

 

Total public chargers

116,112

93,876

71,647

Total (units)

1,774,003

2,027,335

2,280,676

As you can see from the table, public charging infrastructure is dominated by public destination and public residential. The public residential chargers are Level 2 chargers in residential complexes, and they’re used most often as a substitute for a private home charger. Note, too, that by 2035, Level 2 chargers are projected to be approximately 78% of all chargers across Indonesia. For DCFC chargers, these would be required in large numbers for en-route applications—99% of the 6,184 en-route chargers estimated to be needed by 2035. This all helps illuminate the expected needs in various locations for both government and private stakeholders involved in deployment.

We map the number of chargers that we estimate will be needed in each province in Figure 1. In 2035, around 64% of all chargers are projected to be in the top five provinces by number of chargers: DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Timur, Jawa Tengah, and Sumatra Utara. This is aligned with our projections for total the stock of electric cars in 2035, as most of the electric cars are expected to be in those provinces.

Figure 1. Distribution of public chargers for electric cars in Indonesia under the ICCT’s 80% home charging share scenario

Note: This map is presented without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and the name of any territory, city, or area.

A recent survey showed that EV users in Indonesia prefer to charge their vehicles (two-wheelers and cars) at home because they mostly use their EVs for short-distance trips. Similar preferences are seen in many other regions, and that’s why our estimates show that as home charger adoption increases, the need for public charging infrastructure decreases. Because of this, pushing for more home charger adoption would help minimize the amount of state budget needed for public charging infrastructure.

Authors

Tenny Kristiana
Researcher

Jeanly Syahputri
Associate Researcher

Related Publications

Charging Indonesia’s vehicle transition: Infrastructure needs for electric passenger cars in 2030

Assesses charging infrastructure needs at the provincial level in Indonesia to align with the government electrification target of 2 million electric passenger cars by 2030. Read more.

Charging infrastructure

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Perluasan adopsi home charger dapat memangkas biaya investasi SPKLU di Indonesia https://theicct.org/bh-developing-home-charging-can-cut-indonesias-public-charging-costs-nov24/ Wed, 27 Nov 2024 05:00:14 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=52868 Menjajaki pentingnya secara strategis mempromosikan home charger untuk kendaraan listrik di Indonesia.

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Mendukung perluasan adopsi pengisi daya kendaraan listrik merupakan bagian penting dalam program elektrifikasi transportasi di seluruh dunia, termasuk di Indonesia. Memanfaatkan studi awal tentang perhitungan kebutuhan infrastruktur pengisian daya untuk kendaraan listrik roda empat di Indonesia pada tahun 2030, ICCT malakukan analisis baru untuk mendukung Just Energy Transition Partnership yang sedang menyusun Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan untuk tahun 2024. ICCT bekerja sama dengan Efficiency Energy and Electrification Working Group dibawah kepemimpinan the Net Zero World Initiative, untuk memperluas proyeksi infrastruktur pengisian daya pada 2030 dari studi sebelumnya dan memperkirakan kebutuhan infrastruktur pengisian daya di Indonesia untuk tahun 2035.

Jika dijelaskan secara singkat, hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa dengan mendorong penggunaan home charger yang lebih luas, hal tersebut berperan penting dalam mengurangi investasi yang harus dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah untuk perluasan SPKLU. Berikut kami jelaskan elemen-elemen dasar terlebih dahulu, lalu kemudian menjelaskan bagaimana kami sampai pada kesimpulan diatas.

Bagi kendaraan listrik, terdapat dua lokasi pengisi daya, yakni pribadi dan publik/umum (SPKLU). Di analisa terbaru kami untuk tahun 2035, kami mengkategorikan pengisi daya yang terletak di rumah dan depo kendaraan sebagai pengisi daya pribadi. Biaya pemasangan pengisi daya pribadi ditanggung oleh individu atau perusahaan. Sementara itu, untuk kategori pengisi daya umum, atau yang biasa dikenal SPKLU, dibedakan menjadi SPKLU di tempat umum, SPKLU di jalan raya, SPKLU di gedung perkantoran, dan SPKLU di komplek perumahan atau apartemen. (Dalam studi kami sebelumnya, SPKLU di komplek apartmen atau perumahan tidak masuk dalam perhitungan. Namun, karena semakin banyak SPKLU yang dipasang di kompleks perumahan dan apartemen di Indonesia, analisis kami terbaru untuk tahun 2035 menghitung SPKLU di lokasi tersebut.) Umumnya, biaya investasi untuk SPKLU biasanya disediakan oleh pemerintah, namun regulasi di Indonesia memungkinkan pelaku swasta untuk berinvestasi.

Terdapat juga dua jenis pengisi daya di Indonesia: Level 2 dan direct current fast charging (DCFC). Kapasitas pengisi daya Level 2 berkisar antara 7 kW hingga 22 kW, dan sebagian besar digunakan di rumah, depo, tempat umum, gedung perkantoran, dan komplek perumahan atau apartemen. Kapasitas DCFC di Indonesia berkisar antara 25 kW hingga 200 kW dan dapat mengisi penuh kendaraan listrik roda empat dalam waktu 20–60 menit; DCFC sering digunakan untuk pengisian daya di jalan raya dan tempat umum.

Tabel 1 merinci hasil perhitungan kami terhadap kebutuhan pengisian daya hingga tahun 2035, yang mana kami mempertimbangkan tiga skenario adopsi home charger (60%, 70%, dan 80%). Dalam skenario di mana 80% pemilik kendaraan listrik roda empat memiliki home charger, kami memperkirakan sekitar 71.647 charger SPKLU akan dibutuhkan, dan ini akan menelan biaya sekitar Rp. 15,4 triliun (US$964 juta) hingga tahun 2035. Kebutuhan SPKLU akan lebih besar ketika home charger lebih sedikit, dengan tingkat adopsi 70% dan 60%, diperlukan masing-masing 93.876 charger SPKLU dan 116.112 charger SPKLU. Total investasi yang dibutuhkan dapat mencapai Rp. 21,2 triliun (US$1,33 miliar) pada skenario 60% dan sekitar Rp. 18,3 triliun (US$1,15 miliar) pada skenario 70%.

Tabel 1. Jumlah charger (unit) yang dibutuhkan pada tahun 2035 sesuai adopsi home charger 60%, 70%, dan 80%

Kategori

Lokasi charger

Skenario adopsi home charger

   

60%

70%

80%

Pribadi

Depo

2,433

2,433

2,433

 

Rumah

1,655,458

1,931,026

2,206,596

 

Jumlah charger pribadi

1,657,891

1,933,459

2,209,029

Publik

SPKLU di tempat umum

43,513

37,757

32,002

 

SPKLU di jalan raya

6,184

6,184

6,184

 

SPKLU di komplek perumahan

63,109

47,419

31,726

 

SPKLU di gedung perkantoran

3,306

2,516

1,735

 

Jumlah charger publik

116,112

93,876

71,647

Total (unit)

1,774,003

2,027,335

2,280,676

 

Seperti yang dapat dilihat dari table diatas, infrastruktur pengisian daya publik didominasi oleh SPKLU di tempat umum dan di komplek perumahan atau apartemen. SPKLU di komplek perumahan atau apartemen adalah pengisi daya Level 2 dan paling sering digunakan sebagai pengganti home charger. Perhatikan juga bahwa pada tahun 2035, pengisi daya Level 2 diproyeksikan berjumlah sekitar 78% dari semua pengisi daya di seluruh Indonesia. Untuk pengisi daya DCFC, pengisi daya ini akan diperlukan dalam jumlah besar untuk SPKLU di jalan raya— dimana 99% dari total 6.184 charger SPKLU di jalan raya yang akan dibutuhkan pada tahun 2035. Temuan tersebut dapat membantu mengarahkan kebutuhan SPKLU di berbagai lokasi bagi pemangku kepentingan (pemerintah dan swasta) yang terlibat dalam pengembangan SPKLU.

Kami memetakan jumlah charger SPKLU yang akan dibutuhkan di setiap provinsi pada Gambar 1. Pada tahun 2035, berdasarkan perhitungan jumlah charger SPKLU, sekitar 64% dari semua charger SPKLU diproyeksikan berada di lima provinsi berikut: DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Timur, Jawa Tengah, dan Sumatra Utara. Hal ini sejalan dengan proyeksi kami untuk jumlah kendaraan listrik roda empat pada tahun 2035, karena sebagian besar kendaraan listrik roda empat diperkirakan berada di provinsi tersebut.

Gambar 1. Distribusi SPKLU untuk kendaraan listrik roda empat di Indonesia berdasarkan skenario home charger 80% dari ICCT

Catatan: Peta ini ditampilkan tanpa praanggapan terhadap status atau kedaulatan wilayah manapun, penetapan batas internasional, dan nama wilayah, kota, atau area manapun.

Survei terkini menunjukkan bahwa pengguna kendaraan listrik di Indonesia lebih suka mengisi daya kendaraan mereka (baik kendaraan roda dua dan roda empat) di rumah karena sebagian besar dari mereka menggunakan kendaraan listrik untuk perjalanan jarak pendek. Preferensi serupa terlihat di banyak wilayah lain, dan itulah sebabnya perkiraan kami menunjukkan bahwa seiring dengan meningkatnya adopsi home charger, kebutuhan SPKLU akan menurun. Oleh karena itu, mendorong lebih banyak adopsi home charger akan membantu meminimalisir jumlah anggaran negara yang dibutuhkan untuk perluasan infrastruktur SPKLU. 

Authors

Tenny Kristiana
Researcher

Jeanly Syahputri
Associate Researcher

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The post Perluasan adopsi home charger dapat memangkas biaya investasi SPKLU di Indonesia appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Economic benefits of building zero-emission capable vessels in East Asia https://theicct.org/publication/economic-benefits-of-building-zero-emission-capable-vessels-in-east-asia-sept24/ Thu, 26 Sep 2024 04:01:58 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=47526 Examines the economic potential for major shipbuilding nations—China, Republic of Korea, and Japan—in capturing the first mover advantage for the transition to zero-emission capable vessels (ZECVs).

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This paper examines the economic potential for major shipbuilding nations—China, Republic of Korea, and Japan—in capturing the first mover advantage for the transition to zero-emission capable vessels (ZECVs). As the international shipping industry aims for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, ZECVs will play a crucial role in achieving this goal. Furthermore, as ships have a slow turnover rate with an average 25-year life span, shipbuilding countries will need to scale up production rapidly to ensure that new vessels can accommodate fuels with near-zero GHG emissions.  

Key Findings:  

  • Opportunities for substantial revenue increases: ZECV construction could increase shipbuilder revenues from building new types of propulsion systems by 86% to 452% compared to conventional vessels.  
  • Country-specific gains: Based on current market shares, China could see additional revenues of $3.1billion–$15.9 billion, Republic of Korea $1.5 billion–$6.2 billion, and Japan $2.1 billion–$12.5 billion by 2030. 
  • Long-term potential: If ZECV uptake grows at a constant rate between 2026 and 2030, these countries could collectively earn additional revenues ranging from $14.2 billion to $77.4 billion.  

Implications
The transition to ZECVs presents a significant economic opportunity for shipbuilding nations. First movers in ZECV technology could gain a competitive advantage and potentially capture a larger share of this lucrative market.

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Peran regulasi dari sisi suplai (sektor industri) dalam memenuhi target kendaraan listrik di Indonesia pada tahun 2030 https://theicct.org/publication/bh-role-of-supply-side-regulations-in-meeting-indonesias-2030-ev-target-aug24/ Wed, 21 Aug 2024 04:01:57 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=46130 Laporan singkat ini mengeksplorasi potensi penerapan standar konsumsi bahan bakar dan mandat penjualan kendaraan listrik, yang telah terbukti efektif di pasar-pasar utama lainnya, untuk mempercepat transisi kendaraan di Indonesia sesuai dengan target 2 juta kendaraan listrik di pada tahun 2030.

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Indonesia memiliki target 2 juta kendaraan listrik (EV) pada tahun 2030. Proyeksi dalam laporan singkat ini menunjukkan bahwa, bahkan dengan adanya insentif fiskal yang berkelanjutan seperti pengurangan Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) untuk kendaraan listrik yang memenuhi syarat tertentu, kendaraan listrik hanya akan menyumbang sekitar 12%-18% dari pangsa penjualan mobil baru pada tahun 2030, masih jauh dari target 2 kendaraan listrik yang disebutkan. Untuk mencapai target tersebut, penjualan mobil listrik harus terus tumbuh lebih hingga mencapai sekitar 49% dari pangsa penjualan mobil baru pada tahun 2030.

Para penulis menganalisis bagaimana dua opsi peraturan dari sisi suplai-standar konsumsi bahan bakar dan mandat penjualan kendaraan listrik-dapat membantu mempercepat transisi kendaraan listrik di Indonesia. Kedua peraturan tersebut telah terbukti efektif di pasar-pasar utama lainnya dan hampir tidak memerlukan biaya untuk anggaran nasional (satu-satunya biaya yang dikeluarkan adalah untuk pengawasan dan penegakan hukum). Meskipun laporan ini berfokus pada kendaraan penumpang, jenis kebijakan dari sisi penawaran ini dapat dirancang dan diimplementasikan untuk kendaraan roda dua, kendaraan komersial ringan, dan kendaraan tugas menengah dan berat.

Read this brief in English.

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