• The introduction of the Euro 4 emission standard in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2018 significantly reduced NO_x and PM emissions from light-duty vehicles in Abu Dhabi, especially diesel-powered ones. Even so, these vehicles emit 10 to 15 times higher NO_x and PM emissions than average vehicles of the same model year in Europe. Adoption of the Euro 6 “d” stage or higher emission standard in the UAE would support significantly lower real-world NO_x emission levels.
• The Euro VI buses that Abu Dhabi introduced in 2019 and 2020 showed NO_x emissions 94% lower and PM emissions 86% lower than other buses in the emirate certified to the Euro IV minimum. We suggest that the Abu Dhabi government continue to acquire buses with minimum Euro VI standards, and preferably of the “D” stage or higher, as data from Europe shows those buses offer the best emissions performance.
• Taxis more than 5 years old were responsible for at least 55% of total NO_x emissions from taxis despite comprising only around 17% of the taxi fleet in Abu Dhabi. These vehicles were driving under a derogation of their franchise awaiting renewal and were estimated to emit up to 15 times their type-approval limit.
• Electrification is the fastest way to reduce harmful tailpipe emissions from motor vehicles and we suggest that Abu Dhabi accelerate the electrification of its public transport, government, and taxi fleet by setting zero-emission vehicle targets. At the federal level, policies such as a zero-emission vehicle mandate or CO₂ standard for new vehicles would foster the uptake of electric vehicles and help individual emirates align with federal air quality and climate targets.

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Transportation was responsible for 7% of deaths caused by exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone in 2015 in South Africa, and of these deaths, 48% are attributed to on-road diesel vehicles. Severely outdated vehicle emission standards have contributed to this deadly air pollution: the current HDV emission standards in South Africa are Euro II, first introduced in Europe more than 20 years ago and phased-out long ago there and in other major economies. South Africa has not updated its official emission standard regulations since adopting Euro II standards in 2006. Diesel engines that lack modern emission control devices produce PM_2.5, soot, nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and other pollutants in large quantities.

Our analysis finds that South Africa would enjoy substantial benefits in adopting Euro VI standards for its diesel HDV fleet. The announcement of a 10 ppm sulfur diesel requirement by 2023 provides a great window of opportunity for modern emission standards to sync with fuel quality improvements.

With a timeline of implementing Euro VI standards in 2024, the societal benefits associated with reduced HDV tailpipe emissions can outweigh the costs of technology advancements and operating expenses by a ratio of 8.2:1 (5% discounted) between 2021 and 2050. By contrast, delaying the implementation of 10 ppm sulfur diesel requirements or Euro VI standards will diminish the health benefits and lead to a net welfare loss for South Africa.

Future analyses could expand on this study and examine the potential air quality impacts and the costs and benefits of electrification in combination with an improved understanding of reduced non-fatal NO_x emissions under Euro VII aftertreatment technologies, potential HDV fuel economy or CO₂ regulations, and fleet renewal.

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Electric shares of total vehicle sales in Africa are well below levels found in many developing countries in other regions. The EV shares are even lower if imported used vehicles are taken into account, since about 1.5 million used vehicles are imported into Africa every year.

Figure 2. EV sales share (%) of passenger vehicles in non-ZEV Transition Council (ZEVTC6) countries, by key region, based on available data for 2020.

Regarding EV policies, a few African countries, including Cape Verde, Kenya, and Morocco, have announced non-legally binding EV targets. For example, Cape Verde has set 100% EV targets for new sales of passenger cars by 2035 and urban buses by 2040, as well as interim electrification objectives for fleet segments—including passenger cars, urban buses, and government vehicles—and for the nation’s charging infrastructure.

The continent features many opportunities and success stories in the areas of electric shared mobility, electrification of two- and three-wheelers, e-mobility business, manufacturing, incentives, R&D, and charging infrastructure. It also faces a number of challenges in accelerating a ZEV transition, such as import of used internal combustion vehicles, absence of ZEV regulations and policies, lack of technical skills, and unreliable power supply and off-grid rural communities, to name a few.

Policy recommendations that could help advance the ZEV transition in Africa include: incentivizing ZEV manufacturers and importers to improve ZEV access; facilitating ZEV production, imports, and fleet purchases; reducing ZEV cost through trade agreement and international financing; integrating infrastructure development with renewable energy and off-grid solutions; enabling innovative e-mobility business and financing models in shared mobility and public transportation; and demonstrating ZEV technology through exhibition, experience center, and pilot projects to raise public awareness.

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Tanzila holds a PhD in Civil (Environmental) Engineering from North Carolina State University and a Master of Science and a Bachelor of Science in Civil (Transportation) Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. Before joining the ICCT, Tanzila’s prior research works included evaluating the U.S. Federal policy and program targeted for improving light-duty vehicles fuel economy and protecting human health such as the U.S. EPA fuel economy ratings, exhaust emission certification tests, and exhaust emission standards; assessing micro-scale geospatial variation in real-world vehicle activity and emissions to identify real-world emission hotspots and associated factors that are detrimental to near-road air quality and human health; developing energy and emission estimation model to support how to increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from an on-road vehicle fleet; quantifying impacts on air quality (public health) and climate change from implementation of alternative vehicle fuel such as compressed natural gas, compared to conventional diesel and gasoline fuel.

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This first of two papers presents an assessment of technology and fuel pathways, emissions modeling, and total cost of ownership analysis. The authors find that although DDF buses provide a minor GHG emissions benefit relative to older diesel buses in the current fleet, the benefit is not enough to offset the increased activity projected for the fleet in the future. The ongoing procurement of DDF buses with no DDF optimization program and no change in the existing fuel mix would increase, not decrease, fleetwide GHG emissions. This would not contribute to achieving South Africa’s climate goals.

Nonetheless, other technology and fuel pathways that are available to Metrobus could meet and even exceed goals. Results show the procurement of dedicated Euro VI gas engines in the near term, accompanied by a transition from fossil gas to biomethane, can deliver a 55% reduction in fleetwide GHG emissions by 2040. Alternatively, the procurement of Euro VI diesel engines in the near term, operated without coal-to-liquids fuel and followed within 10 years by the exclusive procurement of zero-emission engines, would deliver a 73% reduction in fleetwide GHG emissions by 2040. Part II of this work examines the environmental and operational performance of the DDF buses by focusing on fuel consumption and real-world emissions.

The post South Africa flagship on green mobility: Johannesburg Metrobus, Part I: Greening the future fleet appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The PEMS tests reveal that, compared to the legacy Metrobus fleet, the DDF buses provide significant reductions in nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide emissions. Although a 20-year analysis of global warming potential also shows that total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the DDF buses are slightly lower than the legacy buses, excess methane emissions mean higher GHG emissions from the DDF buses than all other technology options available today. This suggests that DDF can be an effective intermediate technology toward soot-free, cleaner technology, but in order to deliver long-term reductions in the air pollution and GHG emissions of the fleet, Metrobus must move beyond Euro V DDF technology.

The post South Africa flagship on green mobility: Johannesburg Metrobus, Part II: Assessment of diesel dual-fuel engine bus appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Transit operators in Polokwane are using the best diesel technology available to them now. Continuing to do so for their service expansion goals won’t reduce ensure reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and local pollution over time. However, there are alternative bus technologies and fuel pathways that are consistent with the goal of decarbonization.

Four technology options were explored for adoption in Polokwane: diesel Euro VI, diesel hybrid Euro VI, compressed natural gas (CNG) Euro VI, and battery electric buses (BEB). The report compares costs across technologies and adapted to local conditions through a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, which considers the upfront purchase costs of buses and infrastructure as well as the operational costs of fuel/energy use and maintenance.

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