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Accelerating electric cars in Haryana: Four opportunities for the new government https://theicct.org/accelerating-electric-cars-in-haryana-four-opportunities-for-the-new-government-feb25/ Fri, 07 Feb 2025 05:01:40 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=55322 The Indian state of Haryana, an automobile hub, has a key opportunity to accelerate EV adoption through stronger supporting policies and expanded infrastructure.

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This piece originally appeared in Punjab Kesari in Hindi.

For many reasons, Haryana is the automobile hub of India. Its electric vehicle (EV) policy, which began in 2022, marked a significant step toward reducing transportation emissions. Now more than 2 years into the 5-year policy, with the Government of India having released the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for the National Programme on Advance Chemistry Cell Battery Storage and the PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) scheme, there’s a prime opportunity for Haryana’s new government to make strides in promoting EV adoption, particularly for electric cars.

Here are four areas where extra focus could help maximize the potential for success:

1.  Grow the charging infrastructure network. While Haryana’s EV policy promotes setting up charging points in designated urban areas, implementation has been relatively sluggish. For drivers of electric cars in particular, public charging stations are needed in cities and along major highways to make them feel most confident. This is a learning from regions with the highest EV adoption rates, and one example is Norway’s successful model, which ensures charging stations every 50 km on main roads. Norway has one of the world’s highest ratios of chargers to vehicles with 30 public chargers per thousand electric cars and vans. A focus on standardized public charging stations compatible with various EV models and on installing fast chargers would reduce time that drivers spend waiting for a charger, particularly in high-traffic areas, parking lots, and commercial hubs. As we outlined here, charging infrastructure standardization is crucial because it reduces investment costs through economies of scale and significantly improves user experience.

In addition, Haryana can complement Central Government funding available for charging infrastructure in PM E-DRIVE with its own financial incentives for installing home and workplace chargers. Norway’s experience was highlighted at our India Clean Transportation Summit 2024, where Markus Nilsen Rotevatn from the Norwegian EV Association explained that a suite of policies have combined to make EVs in Norway so cost-effective that consumers are choosing them for that reason alone.

2. State manufacturing and research and development (R&D) initiatives for EVs. Haryana’s many strategic advantages—proximity to key markets, robust road infrastructure that provides reliable connectivity to other parts of India, dedicated EV parks, and skilled manufacturing workforce—mean it’s well positioned to become an EV manufacturing hub. The government can offer financial incentives to attract investment from local and global EV manufacturers, battery producers, and component suppliers. One avenue is special economic zones (SEZs) for EV production, which are designated areas that provide benefits like tax exemptions, streamlined customs processes, and access to superior infrastructure. These zones can enhance productivity, reduce operational costs, create job opportunities, and contribute to economic development. In Haryana, such SEZs could be complemented by R&D centres that focus on advancing EV battery technology and cost-effective EV components through public-private partnerships with local universities and technical institutions.

3. Financial incentive structures. Though Haryana’s EV policy includes purchase incentives for electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and cars, registration fee waivers, and road tax exemptions, there are ways to expand the financial benefits. Taking cues from successful global models in the United States, the United Kingdom, and China, Haryana’s government could collaborate with financial institutions to offer low-interest loans for EV buyers and give them more time to repay EV loans. Additionally, the government could create a financial risk management fund from the State Transport Fund for Accelerating EVs and support banks that lend to middle-class buyers and fleet operators. This could be especially effective now, as interest rates are not low. A fixed percentage of the State’s Transport fund could be allocated to things like providing purchase subsidies, developing charging infrastructure, and electrifying public transportation. The fund can also be used to provide free parking or reduced tolls.

4. New regulatory frameworks and building codes. Following models from Europe, Haryana could consider introducing low-emission zones (LEZs) in pollution-heavy cities like Gurugram and Faridabad. LEZs are geographically defined areas where access restrictions are applied to polluting motorized vehicles. The importance of LEZs was highlighted recently in a convening organized jointly by the Government of Haryana Transport Department and the ICCT. The Haryana Pollution Control Board mentioned LEZs in its Winter Action Plan 2024–25, but action on the ground has yet to commence. Updating building codes to require that new residential and commercial buildings be EV-ready and mandating that government departments transition to battery electric vehicles within a specified time frame are other ways to support the market.

Several supplementary measures would also support these priorities. From public-awareness campaigns that leverage multiple channels including television, social media, and community events, to educational programs in technical institutions that focus on EV technology and a robust battery recycling infrastructure with appropriate regulations, such measures work together to create a supportive ecosystem that enables widespread EV adoption.

Delivering on the vision in Haryana’s EV policy is expected to generate substantial environmental and economic benefits, including significant reduction in vehicular emissions, improved air quality across urban centres and avoided premature deaths through reduced air pollution, job creation across the EV value chain, and the positioning of Haryana as a competitive EV manufacturing hub in North India. The state EV policy complements the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan’s goal of 30% EV penetration by 2030 and strengthens India’s commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030. While this agenda is ambitious, the long-term benefits to public health, employment, and economic growth make this transition not just desirable but imperative for Haryana’s sustainable future.

Author

Lavnish Goyal
Researcher

Related Publications

Charging infrastructure in India: Incentives under FAME II and considerations for PM E-DRIVE

This study examines the performance of charging infrastructure component of FAME II, assesses charging infrastructure developed in India and offers policy considerations for charging infrastructure deployment under the latest PM E-DRIVE scheme.

India

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From Fuel to Future: India’s adoption towards Zero Emission Vehicles https://theicct.org/event/indias-adoption-towards-zero-emission-vehicles-feb25/ Mon, 03 Feb 2025 17:27:00 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=event&p=55417 The post From Fuel to Future: India’s adoption towards Zero Emission Vehicles appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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About this event

Did you know that the road transport sector contributes over 20% of global CO₂ emissions? In India, transitioning to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) presents a major opportunity to reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution. Many major economies have already set regulations to achieve 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035. But what does this transition look like for India?

The ICCT’s latest study, “Vision 2050,” provides an updated global assessment of ZEV policies and market trends, analyzing their impact on EV sales, road transport energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. Accelerating ZEV adoption is the most promising strategy to cut CO₂ emissions from road transport and help meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2°C.

India’s ZEV adoption in the last year

In the last year from 2023 to 2024, the number of EVs sold in India increased by 27%. Three-wheelers are leading this transition, with a 57% EV adoption rate, and two-wheelers dominate the sales by the numbers, accounting for 59% of total EVs sold.

In partnership with ET Auto, this webinar will discuss how India and other countries are accelerating the transition to ZEVs, highlighting key successes and opportunities. Based on insights from the ICCT’s “Vision 2050” study, we will discuss how supply-side regulations (SSRs) and fiscal incentives have accelerated ZEV adoption across diverse vehicle markets. We will also examine how India could integrate international best practices to accelerate domestic EV uptake with key policies like fuel economy standards and EV fiscal incentives.

Join us to gain valuable insights on how India can drive towards a cleaner, more sustainable future.

17 February 2025
3:30 PM – 5:00 PM IST

Location: Virtual

Event Partners

Speakers

Amit Bhatt

Amit Bhatt

ICCT India Managing Director

Jacob Teter

Jacob Teter

Independent Advisor and Program Consultant with ICCT
Dr. O.P. Agarwal

Dr. O.P. Agarwal

Advisor, NITI Aayog
Sherebanu Frosh

Sherebanu Frosh

Program Manager, Raahgiri Foundation

Sumantra Bibhuti Barooah

Sumantra Bibhuti Barooah

Editor Technology, ET Auto

Webinar recording

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International experiences shed light on best practices for congestion pricing in Delhi https://theicct.org/international-experiences-shed-light-on-best-practices-for-congestion-pricing-in-delhi/ Mon, 27 Jan 2025 05:01:04 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54988 In considering congestion taxing to help address poor air quality, Delhi has the opportunity to draw on global insights and establish a strong precedent for tackling traffic congestion and air pollution together.

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This piece was originally published in the Hindustan Times.

Road traffic congestion is a pressing issue in many of India’s metropolitan centres. Gridlock brings prolonged commute times, excessive fuel consumption, air and noise pollution, and elevated greenhouse gas emissions. The National Capital Region has been in the spotlight as traffic has worsened with urban sprawl. According to research published by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), on-road vehicles were responsible for nearly three-quarters of the transportation health burden in New Delhi in 2015.

To address peak-hour congestion, Delhi’s government reportedly plans to introduce a pilot congestion tax that would charge drivers who use select roadways during busy periods. Also known as congestion pricing, this aims to ease traffic and reduce pollution by discouraging unnecessary trips and encouraging drivers to use alternative routes, travel at off-peak times, shift to public transport, or share rides (and fees) with others. A 2010 study by the ICCT found that congestion tax schemes in London, Singapore, and Stockholm reduced congestion by 13%–30% and greenhouse gas emissions by 15%–20%.

This isn’t the first time Delhi has considered congestion pricing. Proposals in 2009 and 2018 failed to advance. Still, as Delhi looks ahead to its congestion tax pilot, I’ll highlight experiences from other cities that can provide valuable insights into how these schemes could be employed to effectively reduce traffic and air pollution.

Dynamic pricing

Delhi’s pilot would reportedly charge vehicles entering the city at 13 major entry points during morning and evening peak hours. With over 1.1 million vehicles entering and exiting daily, this makes sense, as such corridors are often heavily congested. A 2016 Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) cross-border traffic survey at nine major entry points to Delhi accounting for about 70% of traffic into the city found that the number of personal and passenger cars and two-wheelers entering daily was about the same as the number of vehicles registered in the city in a year.

At the same time, with over 1,800 new vehicles added to the Capital’s roads daily, an entry-point congestion tax during peak hours could miss an opportunity to address a large portion of daily vehicle emissions. Another CSE study estimated that the traffic at surveyed border points contributed just 10% of the total pollution loads emanating from the transport sector in Delhi. Administering taxes only at peak hours can also mean overlooking emissions during off-peak times, including those from heavy-duty vehicles, which are responsible for 20%–30% of transport sector pollution in Delhi and operate predominately outside of peak hours.

Other countries have sought to balance pollution and emission reduction aims against commuter access through dynamic pricing schemes that apply city-wide and have fees that rise at times of high congestion and drop during less busy times. In Singapore, an early pioneer in congestion pricing, charges are regularly reviewed and adjusted in response to changes in traffic patterns. Rates vary throughout the day and rise and fall gradually around periods of high traffic, which helps avoid surges before and after the designated peak hours.

Targeting the most polluting vehicles

Delhi reportedly plans to impose charges on most vehicles but exempt two-wheelers and electric vehicles. Congestion pricing programs in other countries have also provided discounts or exemptions for certain travelers, such as for residents of the designated taxation area, diplomatic vehicles, and emergency vehicles.

However, in Delhi, discounts and exemptions for any personal or commercial vehicle may risk undermining the core congestion and emission reduction aims of the schemes. For instance, two-wheelers, with reportedly about 1,100 new registrations  each day,  are roughly one in three vehicles on the road and are the second-largest contributor to transport pollution, according to The Energy and Resources Institute. Lessons can also be drawn from Delhi’s own 2016 odd-even scheme, which aimed to reduce pollution by restricting the operation of vehicles based on license plate number and exempted two-wheelers, women-only vehicles, and taxis, among others. Observers assessed that the program had minimal impact on pollution due in part to an increase in the use of exempted vehicles.

Pricing framework

Policymakers in other countries have wrestled with how to set congestion charges high enough to encourage reductions in vehicle use without placing a disproportionate financial burden on low-income travelers. In the 1970s, Singapore’s congestion toll led to a larger-than-expected drop in traffic that raised commuter welfare concerns. More recently, London revised its fee upward to maintain effectiveness in response to inflation.

There are other strategies. Currently, pricing in Singapore and Milan’s Area C varies by vehicle size and heavier, more polluting vehicles pay higher charges than lighter ones. This reflects their greater impact on both traffic congestion and pollution levels. Remote sensing, a method used to monitor real-world tailpipe emissions, could offer support for tailoring congestion prices to the emissions of different vehicles. This technology has been deployed in Europe, the United States, Spain, Sweden, and elsewhere to identify high- and low-emission vehicles and detect possible vehicle tampering. A recent ICCT study that took measurements via remote sensing in Delhi and Gurugram highlighted the difference between real-world tailpipe emission levels and laboratory limits and the need for advanced techniques for emissions monitoring.

A review of congestion pricing pilot programs in U.S. cities identified a number of possible approaches to mitigate the impacts of these schemes on low-income groups, including discounts, exemptions, and rebates. Such measures aim to minimize the financial burden on disadvantaged communities while maintaining the program’s effectiveness. Additionally, cities like Bogotá (Colombia) have adopted approaches that consider drivers’ income level alongside vehicle emissions to establish an equitable pricing structure.

The role of public transportation and supportive policies

Delhi has more than 7,500 buses in operation and over 390 km of metro connectivity, including links to other major cities. Still, challenges persist, including irregular bus frequency, overcrowding during rush hours, poor conditions of the bus, and last-mile connectivity issues for metro users. Ensuring that the public transit system is reliable, well-integrated, and equipped for last-mile connectivity through feeder bus services and pedestrian and cycling infrastructure is critical to realizing the shift away from private transport envisioned under congestion tax schemes. Indeed, congestion pricing was also considered recently in Bangalore and Mumbai, but it stalled due to concerns about the capacity of the public transport system to provide sustainable alternatives to private vehicle users.

Other cities have used revenues from congestion pricing to pay for upgrades to the public transit system. In London, the net revenue from congestion pricing has supported efforts to enhance bus fleets, expand bicycle and pedestrian lanes, improve road safety, and more. Cities like London, Paris, and Brussels have implemented scrappage programs that provide subsidies to retire older, higher-emitting vehicles and encourage a shift to public transit or cleaner private vehicles. Furthermore, initiatives like Delhi’s Mohalla bus scheme, a feeder bus service designed for neighbourhood-level operations, are expected to bridge the last-mile connectivity challenges by deploying 9 m zero-emission buses at scale.

In considering congestion taxing to help address poor air quality, Delhi has the opportunity to draw on global insights and establish a strong precedent for tackling traffic congestion and air pollution together. Success in this would promote sustainable urban mobility that offers a safer, healthier environment for its residents.

Author

Moorthy Nair
Associate Researcher

Related Publications
Real-world motor vehicle exhaust emissions in Delhi and Gurugram using remote sensing

The TRUE Initiative, with analysis led by the ICCT and in collaboration with local authorities, conducted a remote sensing testing campaign that provides an independent evaluation of tailpipe emissions from vehicles to support evidence-based policymaking. Read more.

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Low Emission Zones in Pimpri-Chinchwad Could Cut Air Pollution by Up to 79% by 2030, reveals ICCT Study https://theicct.org/pr-low-emission-zones-in-pimpri-chinchwad-could-cut-air-pollution-by-up-to-79-by-2030-reveals-icct-study/ Wed, 15 Jan 2025 16:19:06 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54797 LEZ Hotspots Revealed: 63% of Pimpri-Chinchwad’s Tailpipe Emissions Emanate from Just 47% of the City’s Area, Offering a Strategic Opportunity for Focused Pollution Control, says study Pune/Pimpri Chinchwad, November 27, 2024: A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reveals the transformative potential of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) in Pimpri-Chinchwad, projecting a […]

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LEZ Hotspots Revealed: 63% of Pimpri-Chinchwad’s Tailpipe Emissions Emanate from Just 47% of the City’s Area, Offering a Strategic Opportunity for Focused Pollution Control, says study

Pune/Pimpri Chinchwad, November 27, 2024: A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reveals the transformative potential of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) in Pimpri-Chinchwad, projecting a dramatic reduction of up to 79% in particulate matter (PM) and 67% in nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 2030. These reductions reflect the urgency of implementing LEZs as part of a strategic effort to combat air pollution in one of Maharashtra’s industrial hubs.

Authored by Moorthy M. Nair, the study, conducted with support from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) India, identifies emission hotspots and provides a clear roadmap for LEZ implementation in the city. The findings align with Maharashtra’s Electric Vehicle Policy, which envisions clean and sustainable urban environments through focused interventions.

An LEZ is an area within a city where vehicles with high emissions are either restricted or charged a fee to enter, aiming to improve air quality and reduce health impacts. By targeting the most polluting vehicles—often older diesel and petrol models—LEZs encourage the use of cleaner alternatives such as zero-emission vehicles and public transport. The ICCT study highlights LEZs as a proven strategy for cutting urban air pollution, with complementary measures like better public transport and walking infrastructure critical to their success.

The study pinpoints two zones within Pimpri-Chinchwad as primary contributors to vehicular emissions. Zone 1, encompassing 29.6 km² or 15.6% of the city’s area, contributes 27% of tailpipe emissions, while the larger Zone 2, covering 88 km² or 47.5% of the city, accounts for a staggering 63% of emissions. By enforcing vehicle restrictions and promoting cleaner mobility, the study highlights how these zones could spearhead a significant reduction in air pollution levels.

The success of LEZs depends not only on vehicle restrictions but also on offering socially equitable mobility options that empower users to transition to cleaner, more efficient alternatives,” said Moorthy M. Nair, Associate Researcher, ICCT.

Key projections include a 50% decrease in particulate matter (PM) and a 32% reduction in nitrogen oxides (NOx) across the city by 2030 due to the adoption of Bharat Stage VI standards. With the implementation of LEZs, these reductions could be further enhanced, particularly in hotspot areas. Heavy goods vehicles emerge as the largest contributors to PM and NOx emissions, while two-wheelers dominate emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC).

Low Emission Zones are a proven strategy for accelerating the shift to clean mobility. With over 350 LEZs operational in Europe, it’s time for Indian cities like Pimpri-Chinchwad to adopt this approach to secure cleaner air and better public health,” said Amit Bhatt, India Managing Director, ICCT.

The study highlights the need for complementary measures such as high-frequency public transport, infrastructure for walking and cycling, and equitable incentives for replacing non-compliant vehicles with zero-emission alternatives. The roadmap suggests that planning for LEZs begin in 2024, with enforcement starting by 2026.

For more information, access the study here: Impact of LEZ on Air Pollutants in Pimpri-Chinchwad.

Media contact: Almas Naseem, communications@theicct.org

 

About ICCT

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

ICCT India | X | LinkedIn | YouTube | Newsletter

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India Synchronizes EV Sales and Charging Infrastructure Growth in 2024 https://theicct.org/pr-india-synchronizes-ev-sales-and-charging-infrastructure-growth-in-2024/ Wed, 15 Jan 2025 16:14:09 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54794 Unprecedented growth in EV sales and charging infrastructure in 2024, setting a strong foundation for PM E-DRIVE to accelerate the shift toward a sustainable and net-zero future. New Delhi, January 10: In a defining moment for India’s electric mobility revolution, EV sales soared to 19 lakh units in 2024, marking a 19% increase over 2023, […]

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Unprecedented growth in EV sales and charging infrastructure in 2024, setting a strong foundation for PM E-DRIVE to accelerate the shift toward a sustainable and net-zero future.

New Delhi, January 10: In a defining moment for India’s electric mobility revolution, EV sales soared to 19 lakh units in 2024, marking a 19% increase over 2023, accompanied by a record expansion of 25,202 public charging stations nationwide. These achievements underscore India’s commitment to sustainable transport, with the PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) scheme set to drive further transformative progress.

Comparative Performance of Top 10 States in 2024

India’s electric vehicle (EV) performance in 2024 was spearheaded by a handful of states, with Uttar Pradesh leading EV sales, contributing 19% of the national total, followed by Maharashtra (12%) and Karnataka (9%). These three states accounted for 40% of all EV sales in the country. Tamil Nadu followed this with 7% along with Rajasthan, and Bihar with 6% each, demonstrating growing adoption across diverse regions.

On the infrastructure front, Karnataka led with the largest public charging network (5,765 stations), accounting for 23% of the national total. Maharashtra (3,728) and Uttar Pradesh (1,989) followed, reflecting strong alignment between sales and infrastructure growth. Delhi and Tamil Nadu rounded out the top five in charging station installations. Together, the top 10 states drove over 70% of India’s EV sales and hosted the majority of its public charging stations, showcasing the regional momentum behind the country’s electric mobility push.

Growth in EV Sales and Charging Network

2024 showcased a synchronized leap in EV adoption and infrastructure:

  • EV Sales: Two-wheelers led the charge with 59% of total sales, followed by three-wheelers at 35%.
  • Charging Infrastructure: Public charging stations grew to 25,202 by December 2024. Karnataka led with 5,765 stations (23% of the total), followed by Maharashtra (3,728) and Uttar Pradesh (1,989).

This alignment between adoption and infrastructure ensures seamless support for India’s growing EV ecosystem.

PM E-DRIVE: Addressing the Next Frontier

The second iteration of India’s EV demand promotion policy, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India II (FAME II) concluded in March 2024, after being in force for 5 years. According to the research by ICCT, 69% of the ₹11,500 crore earmarked under the scheme was utilized by the end. Another study by ICCT found that FAME II utilized 75% of the ₹893 crore allocated for charging infrastructure development.

The launch of the ₹10,900 crore PM E-DRIVE scheme in October 2024 further bolstered India’s EV transition. Key elements include:

  • ₹2,000 crore for public charging stations, accelerating their reach and usability.
  • ₹500 crore for electric trucks, marking the first inclusion of this segment to address heavy-duty transport emissions.
  • ₹4,391 crore for electric buses, driving urban public transport sustainability.

For the optimum utilization of INR 2,000 crore allocated for the charging infrastructure under the PM E Drive scheme, ICCT study suggests prioritizing:

  • Charging stations in and around residential buildings or multi-unit dwellings
  • The development of DC fast chargers for trucks and buses on the Golden Quadrilateral highway network that comprises of 0.5% of India’s road network but carry 40% of the country’s road freight.
  • Support for all charging solutions with technology-neutral incentives that apply to all charging methods including wired charging and battery swapping
  • Support for specific cost-related challenges like upstream charging infrastructure and land could be subsidized under the scheme’s incentives

Link to the study: Charging infrastructure in India: Incentives under FAME II and considerations for PM E-DRIVE

2024: A Blueprint for the Future
India’s transport sector accounts for 14% of national energy-related CO₂ emissions. The record growth in 2024 strengthens India’s pathway to meeting its Paris Agreement goals and net-zero commitments by 2070. With PM E-DRIVE in effect until March 2026, the stage is set for even greater milestones.

Quotes Section

“EV incentive policies, including FAME and PM E-DRIVE, have been major drivers for the initial rise in the EV uptake and charging infrastructure in India. The year 2025 will be crucial as India forges ahead in its transition towards clean mobility, with the potential introduction of supply-side regulations such as fuel economy standards, which is imperative for the country to achieve its climate objectives” – Sumati Kohli, Researcher, ICCT

Media contact: Almas Naseem | communications@theicct.org

About ICCT: The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

ICCT India | X | LinkedIn | YouTube | Newsletter

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Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024 https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25/ Mon, 13 Jan 2025 23:01:30 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54611 This update to the ICCT’s Vision 2050 series tracks global progress on zero-emission vehicle policies and markets through August 2024. The analysis shows recently adopted policies could avoid an additional 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2050, but that a gap remains between this updated baseline and a more ambitious scenario aligned with the Paris climate goals.

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Executive summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.

Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO2 emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C

This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.

This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.

Key findings

Based on our comprehensive analysis of policy developments, market trends, and emissions trajectories, we draw the following conclusions:

Countries and regions are increasingly adopting supply-side vehicle regulations to accelerate ZEV adoption.
Since April 2023, such regulations have been adopted in six major vehicle markets, which are increasingly aligned toward achieving 100% ZEV sales for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2035. For heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), recently adopted regulations have paved the way for ZEV sales shares of 100% in California by 2036 and 77% in the European Union by 2040.
Sales shares of ZEVs grew rapidly in many markets across vehicle segments.
Recent trends demonstrate quick market responses across various regions and vehicle segments, with 2022–2023 seeing double-digit increases in ZEV sales shares for cars in Thailand and Vietnam and for buses in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile. ZEV sales shares for medium trucks more than doubled year-over-year in the European Union and the United Kingdom over the same period. These developments show that markets can respond swiftly when favorable conditions align.
International initiatives continue to build momentum for the global ZEV transition.
The ZEV Declaration and Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles have garnered new signatories and now represent roughly one quarter of the global new vehicle market. The ZEV Declaration gained three new signatories between April 2023 (Baseline 2023) and August 2024 (Baseline 2024): Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nigeria. The Global HDV MOU added 11 new signatories, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Mozambique.
Global road transport CO2 emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025.

In the Baseline 2024 scenario, emission reductions among three of the six largest emitters—the United States, the European Union, and China—are projected to offset emissions growth in other countries. However, these peaks could be delayed if global vehicle activity grows faster than anticipated, if existing policies are weakened, or if ZEV sales slow in major markets without binding policies.

Despite significant progress, a gap remains between current commitments and a Paris-aligned ZEV trajectory.
For LDVs, recently adopted policies and commitments have nearly halved the ambition gap, in terms of ZEV sales shares projected in 2030, between the Baseline 2021 and Ambitious scenarios. The gap has shrunk by one third for HDVs and by one fifth for two- and three-wheelers. While progress has been substantial, regional disparities persist, with major economies like China, Indonesia, and Brazil showing smaller reductions in their ambition gaps.

Download the supplemental data here.

For media and press inquiries, please contact Kelli Pennington, Global Communications Manager, at communications@theicct.org.

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How can India build more charging stations for electric vehicles? https://theicct.org/vid-how-can-india-build-more-charging-stations-for-electric-vehicles-dec24/ Thu, 19 Dec 2024 15:33:02 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54174 Our latest study dives into the performance of the charging infrastructure component under FAME II and shares policy considerations for electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment under the latest PM E-DRIVE scheme.

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Global electric vehicle market monitor for light-duty vehicles in key markets, 2024 H1 https://theicct.org/publication/global-ev-market-monitor-ldv-2024-h1-dec24/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 17:16:17 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=54056 This Global Market Monitor analyzes the development of the electric vehicle (EV) market for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including by manufacturer.

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Global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 7 million units in the first half of 2024 and were 17% of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold worldwide. China, Europe, the United States, and India collectively represented 68% of LDV sales, and 86% of EVs sold globally.

China continued to lead the global EV market with 4.3 million units sold in H1 2024, and this was 37% of its new LDV sales—an 8 percentage point increase from H1 2023. Europe saw a slight decline in EV sales share to 18% from 20% in H1 2023, while the United States maintained its 9% EV sales share. India held steady at 2% of new LDV sales with approximately 58,000 EVs sold.

Figure. Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) still dominated EV sales in 2024 H1 across markets but the shares varied. In China, the BEV share of EV sales fell from 69% to 61%, and similarly in the United States, there was a slight drop from 80% to 77%. In contrast, Europe saw an increase in the BEV share of EVs to 68%, up from 60% in 2023 H1. India maintained its strong preference for BEVs, which continued to make up nearly all (99%) the EVs sold.

In emerging markets, Vietnam and Thailand recorded the highest EV sales share among the markets considered, at nearly 16% and 14%, respectively. Brazil recorded a 5% EV sales share, and Türkiye a 4% share. Domestic vehicle producers, such as VinFast in Vietnam and Togg in Türkiye, dominated EV sales, meanwhile a mix of legacy automakers and newcomers such as BYD dominated sales in other markets. BEVs also dominated sales in these markets, comprising 83% of EV sales in 2024 H1.

Figure. BEVs dominate EV sales in emerging markets with 83% of sales, Vietnam and Thailand lead in EV sales share

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Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China https://theicct.org/viz-global-ev-sales-surpassed-7-million-units-in-the-first-half-of-2024-4-3-million-units-sold-in-china/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 17:12:00 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=54529 The post Global EV sales surpassed 7 million units in the first half of 2024, 4.3 million units sold in China appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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