Executive summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.

Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C

This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.

This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.